It’s time for Scott Reynolds’ 2-Point Conversion post-game column, which features two statements, two questions and two predictions based on the latest Bucs game.
Tampa Bay did what it needed to do on Sunday to get back on top of the NFC South. The Bucs paired a 48-14 blowout win over the Panthers with an overtime loss by the Falcons to the Commanders to move ahead of Atlanta in the division. A win over New Orleans would give 9-6 Tampa Bay a fourth straight division title.
2 BIG STATEMENTS
STATEMENT 1. Only Team That Can Stop The Bucs? Themselves
Here’s what we’ve learned about the Bucs since the bye week as Tampa Bay has gone 5-1 down the stretch heading into the season finale against New Orleans on Sunday.
The only team that can beat the Bucs are themselves.
Tampa Bay has had three blowout victories since the bye, winning at New York against the Giants, 30-7, beating the Chargers in Los Angeles, 40-17, and Sunday’s 48-14 triumph over Carolina. The Bucs also had a double-digit win over the Raiders, 28-14, and a close, 26-23 overtime win at Carolina.
Tampa Bay’s only loss was at Dallas, 26-24, on Sunday Night Football.
Sure, the Bucs have beaten some bad teams along the way. The Giants, Raiders and Panthers will all be picking in the Top 10 in the NFL Draft next April, as will the Saints, whom Tampa Bay faces on Sunday. But the 40-17 win over the Chargers on the road also shows that this team can beat playoff-caliber foes.
And let’s not forget that the Bucs beat the Commanders (11-5), Lions (13-2) and Eagles (13-3) within the first three weeks of the season. Those wins still count for a 9-6 Tampa Bay team.
But in the only loss down the stretch, it was self-inflicted wounds that doomed the Bucs against a lesser Cowboys team. Tampa Bay lost the turnover battle 3-0 in Dallas, and had some costly penalties, too. That’s why the first Panthers game was close, as the Bucs lost the turnover battle 2-1, yet survived an overtime win.
On Sunday Tampa Bay didn’t turn it over to Carolina and look what happened. Not just a close win – a blowout.
Even when the Bucs had two giveaways against the Chargers the Tampa Bay defense produced two takeaways to even out the turnovers. That was pretty much the case against the Raiders too, although Las Vegas did have a slight edge in that department, 3-2. Yet the Bucs still won by 15 points.
When Tampa Bay is on – and I mean scoring 30 points or more – the team is just about unstoppable. Liam Coen’s high-powered offense has the team averaging 29.7 points per game. And look how Todd Bowles’ play-calling on defense changes and becomes effective and enhanced with a big lead.
Unless the Buccaneers get sloppy with fumbles and interceptions, and draw untimely penalties, it’s hard to stop Coen and Co. from putting up 30 points. That has now happened in eight out of the team’s 16 games this season, including three times since the bye week.
Why do I have a feeling that another 30-point outburst is coming against New Orleans on Sunday? Remember, the Bucs beat the Saints, 51-27, on the bayou back in Week 6.
It may be a fluky stat, but it held up again in Sunday’s win versus the Panthers: the Bucs are now 9-1 when scoring first this year and 0-6 when they don’t.
Hot starts lead to blowout wins – especially when the Bucs get out of their own way.
STATEMENT 2. Mike Evans, Bucky Irving Attack Opponents By Air And Land
Tampa Bay is poised to do something that has never been done before in franchise history. If future Hall of Fame wide receiver Mike Evans can hit 1,000 yards with 85 more receiving yards in Sunday’s season finale against the Saints, the Bucs will have a 1,000-yard receiver, a 1,000-yard running back and a 4,000-yard passer in the same season for the first time ever.
Quarterback Baker Mayfield did his part two weeks ago at Dallas, topping 4,000 yards for just the second time in his career. Rookie running back Bucky Irving became the Bucs’ first 1,000-yard rusher since Doug Martin accomplished that feat back in 2015.
Now it’s Evans’ turn to extend his streak to an NFL-record 11 seasons with 1,000 receiving yards to start a career. Evans would also tie Jerry Rice’s mark of 11 straight years with 1,000-yard seasons, although Rice didn’t start his career off with 1,000 yards back in San Francisco like Evans did in Tampa Bay.
LEGEND: #Bucs receiver Mike Evans is the 7th player in #NFL HISTORY to have six 10+ receiving touchdowns in a season.
— MLFootball (@_MLFootball) December 29, 2024
Evans joins NFL legends Randy Moss, Jerry Rice, Terrell Owens, Marvin Harrison Sr, Chris Carter, and Davante Adams.
Mike Evans is an all-time great player. pic.twitter.com/KQezcDEGBg
The trio of Mayfield, Evans and Irving have ignited the offense down the stretch. Since the bye week, the Bucs are averaging 32.7 points per game, which is higher than the team’s 29.7 points per game average.
Evans has a pair of 100-yard games via the air and came close to another one with 97 yards versus the Panthers on Sunday. Irving has a trio of 100-yard rushing games with his most recent coming on Sunday with 113 yards against Carolina. He was named the NFC Offensive Player of the Week for his 152-yard, one-touchdown performance in the Week 13 win in Charlotte.
Mayfield has thrown for 285 yards or more in five of Tampa Bay’s last six games. He’s also had three games over that span with three passing TDs or more, including a season-high five touchdowns against the Panthers on Sunday. Mayfield was the NFC Offensive Player of the Week following the Week 15 win at Los Angeles and should win the same honor again this week.
As long as this trio stays hot – with help from the offensive line and the Bucs’ supporting cast on offense – there’s no game ahead that Tampa Bay can’t win as long as it wins the turnover battle.
2 PROBING QUESTIONS
QUESTION 1. Is Defensive Tackle Logan Hall Turning The Corner?
It sure looks like, doesn’t it? After registering 2.5 sacks as a rookie and then none last year, the pressure was on defensive tackle Logan Hall to step up as a pass rusher this season. Hall posted another sack on Sunday to bring his season total to 5.5 sacks this year, which is tied for third on the team with linebacker Lavonte David.
Only defensive tackle Calijah Kancey, who now has a career-high 7.5 after sacking Bryce Young on Sunday, and defensive tackle Vita Vea (six) have more. Hall, who had one of five Bucs sacks against the Panthers, has had a pair of games with multiple sacks against Atlanta (two) and Los Angeles (1.5). He’s finally living up to his potential as the team’s top pick at the start of the second round in 2022.
“I’ve been playing faster than I’ve ever played in my NFL career,” Hall told me after the game. “There’s absolutely no thinking involved. I’m just playing fast and I’m having more fun than I’ve ever had. Things are just naturally happening for me.”
Adding some necessary strength over the last two off-season’s and getting his weight closer to 300 pounds has been a big key for the 6-foot-6 Hall.
“You can see it when you watch the tape – I’ve definitely gotten stronger,” Hall said. “That’s just happened with my hard work in the offseason. I’ve been reaping what I’ve been sowing.”
Hall wound up as the third-highest defender in Tampa Bay’s 48-14 win over Carolina on Sunday and the arrow is pointing up regarding his career in Tampa Bay as he looks to finish his third season in the league with a bang.
#Bucs vs. Panthers PFF Grades
DEFENSE
Top 5
1. OLB Braswell 79.9
2. OLB Diaby 78.5
3. DT Hall 73.8
4. LB David 73
5. CB Hayes 71.7
Bottom 5
1. S Whitehead 35.9
2. S Edwards 43.3
3. NCB Smith 47.4
4. DT Kancey 52.2
5. LB Britt 63.2— PewterReport 🏴☠️ (@PewterReport) December 30, 2024
QUESTION 2. What’s The Bucs’ Achilles Heel?
It’s easily the turnover differential. Tampa Bay just isn’t taking the ball away enough this year, and that’s a big concern. The Bucs have only seven interceptions on defense and that has played a big role in the team having a minus-4 turnover differential.
The Bucs have fumbled the ball away seven times and recovered 11 on defense. Yet quarterback Baker Mayfield has thrown 15 interceptions this year, but the defense has not done enough to offset them.
Tampa Bay has the worst turnover margin out of all of the NFC playoff teams. The Bills lead the league with an absurd plus-23 turnover differential, and the top team in the NFC is the Packers at plus-12, followed by the Eagles and Vikings at plus-10. The Lions are plus-9, the Rams are plus-7, and the Commanders are plus-2.
Unless Mayfield is extra cautious with the football in the playoffs or Todd Bowles’ unit suddenly comes away with a lot of takeaways, the Bucs’ postseason trip could be a very brief one.
2 BOLD PREDICTIONS
PREDICTION 1. Bucs Score 37 Points To Break Tampa Bay’s Points Record
The Bucs have scored 475 points this year, which is the third-highest mark in Tampa Bay history behind the 2020 (492) and the 2021 (511) seasons. It’s mostly been Liam Coen’s offense with a scoop-and-score from Antoine Winfield Jr., a blocked punt return for a touchdown from J.J. Russell and a safety against Atlanta helping out. The Bucs need to score 37 points on Sunday to break the record set by Tom Brady and Co. during the team’s 13-win season in 2021.
Keep in mind that the Saints allowed 51 points in a 51-27 loss back in Week 6 at New Orleans, so it wouldn’t be far-fetched to see Coen’s offense score a lot of points again. In fact, Tampa Bay’s offense has scored 40 points at Los Angeles and 41 of the team’s 48 points versus Carolina within the span of three games. Dropping 37 points on a Saints squad that lost 25-10 against a woeful Las Vegas team last week wouldn’t be far-fetched.
The Bucs offense scored 497 points out of the team’s 511 points back in 2021. Safety Mike Edwards had a pair of pick-sixes against the Falcons that season. This year’s offense has scored 459 points. So if it truly wants to be the highest-scoring offense in Tampa Bay history, scoring 39 points would get to 498 points from that side of the ball, and 514 points in total. I think it could happen with how well Baker Mayfield and Co. are playing.
PREDICTION 2. Bucs Beat The Saints To Win The NFC South Again
How about that for a quick and easy prediction? It should happen, right?
Happy New Year, Bucs fans!
