New stars around the NHL are born with every new season. Last season, Brandon Hagel was the breakout star for the Bolts, registering 26 goals and 49 assists for 75 points. Furthermore, the Tampa Bay Lightning received a solid middle-six contribution from Mikey Eyssimont, who added 11 goals and 25 points. While a couple of forwards set career-highs last season and broke onto the scene, the backend has much more untapped potential for the upcoming season in Tampa Bay. Who are potential breakout stars for the 2024-25 Lightning?
J.J. Moser: First Pairing Upside
The first breakout star candidate this season is newly acquired defenseman J.J. Moser. The Switzerland native was part of the return package that sent star blueliner Mikhail Sergachev to the Utah Hockey Club. The Lightning added some additional assets in the trade, including blue-chip prospect Conor Geekie and two draft picks. Drafted as an overaged prospect in the second round of the 2021 Entry Draft, Moser played against elite competition on the Arizona Coyotes’ top defensive pairing last season.
Sean Durzi became a top-pairing talent due to Moser’s ability to defend the rush and play responsible defensive hockey. The former Los Angeles Kings’ prospect set a career-high in points with 41 in 76 games alongside the Swiss defenseman. Moser uses his gap control and stick work to steer opposing forwards away from high-danger scoring areas. The left-handed defender is a minute-eater, leading his team in time on ice last season with 1,323 minutes in all situations.
Moser can develop his all-around game with improved offensive teammates and systems in Tampa Bay. He would shatter his career-best seven goals and 24 assists from two seasons ago on the first pairing alongside Victor Hedman. Moreover, Moser would be the perfect partner for Hedman, as his shutdown ability and experience would allow the Swedish veteran to continue his offensive prowess with minimal risk. However, the 24-year-old defender is listed to start the season on the third pairing alongside my other Lightning breakout star candidate for the 2024-25 season.
Nick Perbix: Sneaky Breakout Candidate
A sixth-round draft pick of the Lightning (169th overall) in 2017, Nick Perbix was always an underdog throughout his journey to the NHL. At 26 years old, Perbix has yet to eclipse the 150-game mark in the NHL. At a cost-effective cap hit of $1.125 million, he has multiple hidden tools to his game that make him a sneaky breakout candidate on Tampa Bay’s blue line this season.
Like Moser, Perbix is a solid rush defender but offers more on the offensive side of the game and in transition. He was the Lightning’s best puck-moving defenseman last season outside of Hedman. He’s also seeing a steady increase in point totals each season. He had five goals and 15 assists for 20 points in 69 games in his rookie campaign. Last season, as a sophomore in the league, he notched two goals and 22 assists for 24 points in 77 games. With a fair opportunity, he can develop into an under-the-radar top-four option for Tampa Bay. He’s posted favorable microstats in AllThreeZones’ dataset along with my own.
The main factor preventing Perbix from being my top breakout star pick is his older age. With Moser in an improved environment and a few years younger, he has higher upside than Perbix. In addition, Moser played in much more difficult minutes than Perbix over the last two seasons. Both of my breakout picks are projected to be on the third pairing for Tampa Bay this season, making the team’s defensive depth one of the best in the league. Nevertheless, the Lightning blue line will be a treat to watch, featuring two potential breakout stars on the horizon.
