The Tampa Bay Lightning looked poised to have another strong season heading into 2023-24, especially with the core still together and mostly in their primes. But then the start of training camp hit them with a massive curveball: goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy was going to miss the first couple months of the season after undergoing microdiscectomy surgery. They’d been without a key player for a good chunk of the season before (see Nikita Kucherov in the 2020-21 season), but that was with a much deeper team, so many wondered if they’d be able to survive this one.
But survive they did. The Lightning weren’t dominating the league in Vasilevskiy’s absence, but backup goaltender Jonas Johansson proved to be just good enough to backstop the Lightning to a 9-6-5 record, good enough for third in the Atlantic Division. However, Kucherov was the big reason for their success, with 29 points in 19 games to start the year. That proved to be the trend even with Vasilevskiy’s return, as Kucherov had 115 points in the remaining 62 games while the Lightning coasted to a Wildcard spot with a 36-23-3 record the rest of the way.
In fact, the most interesting part about that season for the Lightning (outside of the growing anxiety surrounding captain Steven Stamkos’ contract status) was the MVP race that Kucherov was a part of. Ultimately, while finishing the season as the league’s leading scorer with 144 points, he placed second in voting. Why was that the most interesting narrative? Because come playoff time, the Lightning bowed out quickly, dropping the first three games to the Florida Panthers, but managing to get one win in before ultimately losing in a gentleman’s sweep.
That resulted in a big shakeup this summer. Gone are Stamkos and Mikhail Sergachev, back is Ryan McDonagh, and replacing Stamkos is arguably the top offensive free agent target in Jake Guentzel. It was a surprising set of moves from a team that seemed to be getting too loyal to the players that won them Cups in 2020 and 2021, and now the team will be looking to return to that glory. But were the changes enough to reopen their Cup window, or did they just shuffle the deck chairs on the Titanic?
KEY ADDITIONS & DEPARTURES
Additions
Jake Guentzel, LW
Ryan McDonagh, D
J.J. Moser, D
Cam Atkinson, RW
Zemgus Girgensons, C
Conor Geekie, C
Departures
Steven Stamkos, C (Nsh)
Mikhail Sergachev, D (Uta)
Anthony Duclair, LW (NYI)
Matt Dumba, D (Dal)
Tanner Jeannot, LW (LA)
Tyler Motte, C (Det)
Calvin de Haan, D (Col)
Hadyn Fleury, D (Wpg)
Austin Watson, RW (Det – PTO)
OFFENSE
The Lightning had one of the best offenses in the league in 2023-24 with the fifth-most goals for per game (3.51), but a lot of that was because of their league-leading power play that clicked at 28.6%, a rate that was 1.7% better than the next best team. At 5v5, they ranged from mediocre to horrible in terms of offensive generation, ranking 16th in 5v5 goals for per 60 minutes (2.58), 20th in 5v5 shot attempts for per 60 (58.32) and 24th in 5v5 expected goals for per 60 (2.47).
So it should be no surprise that the Lightning’s top power play unit of Kucherov, Stamkos, Brayden Point, Brandon Hagel and Victor Hedman were the only players that contributed a lot offensively to the lineup. I already talked about Kucherov’s MVP-caliber season, and a big argument for him winning the trophy was the fact that he outscored his teammates by at least 54 points. After his 144, Point was next with 90 points, Stamkos had 81, Hedman had 76 points and Hagel had 75. Beyond them, there wasn’t a lot of offensive contributions, as Nick Paul and Anthony Cirelli were the Bolts’ only other 40 point scorers, and Darren Raddysh was the only other player to hit 30. Some of that can be attributed to injuries (Sergachev would have likely had more than 19 points if he played more than 34 games), and some was masked by a limited time with the team (Anthony Duclair had 15 points in 17 games after the Lightning acquired him at the deadline), but overall there wasn’t a lot of offensive help for the core.
Perhaps it was how the Lightning faired in terms of wins and losses without Sergachev’s production that made the Lightning feel comfortable with moving on from the defenseman and replacing him with a more defensively sound McDonagh, but that is still some depth scoring that could have been very useful on a Tampa squad that needs it. At least with Stamkos, he’s replaced by a similarly productive forward in Guentzel, who had 77 points in 67 games and has already shown that he can keep up with elite talent after playing with Sidney Crosby for most of his career. Cam Atkinson is an interesting gamble considering his previous production, but I wouldn’t expect too much with his age and recent injury history, so there are a lot more questions than answers with this group offensively beyond the top five.
DEFENSE
Much like the Lightning’s offense, their defense also seemed to excel more on special teams than at even strength. They were the eighth-best team in terms of 5v5 shot attempts against per 60 (56.71) and had the fifth-best penalty kill at 83.3%, but otherwise they were tied for 22nd in the league in goals against per game (3.26) and tied for 14th in 5v5 expected goals against per 60 (2.59). There is a certain value in being able to score and defend in those key moments, but it obviously didn’t work out for them in the long run.
A big reason for the Lightning’s defensive struggles was also the play of their top players, as the four-worst regulars in their lineup in terms of defensive goals above replacement were Kucherov (-2.9), Stamkos (-3.9), Point (-3.9) and Hedman (-6.9), with Hedman’s being the third-worst league-wide among defensemen. It really was just that group that was the problem, as Conor Sheary was the only other lineup regular with a defensive GAR lower than -1. But they get a lot of the ice time, so it meant that the Lightning were giving up just as much as they were creating most of the time. Among the players returning for this season, they do have a few strong defensive players like Raddysh (6), Hagel (4.3), Paul (3.3), Erik Cernak (1.4) and Luke Glendening (1.2), but they also lost a few in Motte (4.9), de Haan (3.2) and Jeannot (1.2).
That’s probably why the Lightning felt the need to move on from Sergachev and Stamkos and replace them with McDonagh and Guentzel. On top of McDonagh being a strong defensive defenseman (3.5), he also gives Tampa the opportunity to return to the defensive deployment of their Cup years and shelter Hedman a bit more. Hedman’s brutal numbers have been largely due to his tough deployment, so McDonagh will help ease that load. Guentzel (-0.9) isn’t exactly a defensive stalwart, but he does provide an upgrade on Stamkos, so that should help improve their defense a bit when they give tons of minutes to the top guys, unless they drag Guentzel down with them.
As for the added depth players, there isn’t a lot to get your hopes up for defensively. Girgensons is passable in his own end (0.3), but then Atkinson (-3.1) and Moser (-6.8) are probably going to hurt the Lightning more than help them. Ultimately, it will come down to head coach Jon Cooper’s strategies and deployment, as he’ll need to find the right lines and pairings that can allow their top scorers to thrive while giving them defensive support.
GOALTENDING
A lot of eyebrows were raised when the Lightning signed Johansson as their backup to Vasilevskiy in the 2023 offseason, especially with his subpar NHL career up to that point. And when Vasilevskiy’s injury was announced, even more concerns were raised about their best option being Johansson. Well, he proved the doubters wrong… somewhat. By the time Vasilevskiy returned, Johansson had an .895 save percentage and a -2.03 goals saved above expected, which wasn’t great but was still good enough to keep the Lightning afloat. He only played in nine more games after Vasilevskiy came back, and finished with a shakier .890 SV% and -7.23 GSAx.
That said, Vasilevskiy wasn’t much better upon his return. While he had a 30-20-2 record over the course of the season, he also finished the year with a .900 SV% and a -1.24 GSAx. That is far from the norm for a goalie who many consider to be the best of this era. It was his first time since becoming a starter that he finished a season below a .915 SV%, and while the Lightning defense wasn’t stellar in front of him, it’s still a disappointing season from the netminder. Tampa will have to hope that this was just an off season, or hope that there was still lingering injury issues that were resolved with nearly five months of rest, because if this is what we should expect from Vasilevskiy in his 30s, that’s going to be a tough fix for the Lightning, especially with his pricey contract.
COACHING
At this point in Cooper’s time with the Lightning, it feels like the only way that he’ll see himself fired from the team is if the roster has failed him and general manager Julien BriseBois needs a scapegoat, or if Cooper becomes so stubborn that he lets the game pass him by. While talk of him getting axed after Tampa’s first round exit last season was merely gossip, you could already see the other teams in the league circling the Bolts like vultures in hopes that they’d let him go.
That just goes to show the legacy that Cooper has created in Tampa, as the team has been as consistent as one can be during his tenure. In 11 full seasons, the Lightning have two Cups, four Final appearances, have made the playoffs 10 times, and in total have a 525-279-75 record that ranks second in the league since he took over. He’s one of the best coaches in the league, and while Tampa has more and more concerns with each passing year of their Cup window, Cooper isn’t one of them.
ROOKIES
Years of success has left the Lightning’s prospect cupboard extremely bare, to the point that it not only lacks NHL-level talent now, but we might also not see a lot of their prospects play important roles down the road. The one exception who could play this season is Geekie, acquired as part of the return for Sergachev. Geekie has size and skill, and could thrive in the NHL right now if he makes a name for himself in training camp. He might not hold down a role with the Lightning all season, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he has stretches of the year where he makes the team as an injury replacement or impresses in the AHL and earns a spot on the roster. Isaac Howard is also a great prospect who will likely contribute for them eventually, but he’ll likely finish school before attempting an NHL career.
BURNING QUESTIONS
1. Is now the right time to move on from key players? The Lightning had been drifting towards the territory in which most Cup contenders find themselves as their window closes, where they get a bit too loyal to pieces that helped them win that aren’t part of the core. However, this summer they showed that they can be cutthroat, trading Sergachev and letting Stamkos walk to free agency to replace them with McDonagh and Guentzel. It was a surprise last-ditch effort to keep their window open, and while Guentzel is certainly a better long-term fit for Tampa, letting their long-time captain walk feels like a weird time to abandon loyalty when they had previously been dishing out long-term deals to the likes of Paul and Cernak.
2. Will Victor Hedman bounce back with an easier role? While it may not have looked like it from a casual glance, Hedman has been struggling for the past two seasons. In his 15-season career, Hedman has finished a season with a negative defensive GAR only four times: his rookie season, the 2020-21 campaign where he dealt with lingering injuries all year, and the past two seasons where he was put into a shutdown role with McDonagh no longer on the team. McDonagh is back on the team now, which means that Hedman will be back in an easier role that he should thrive in, so long as age hasn’t started to take its toll on the Swede. And that’s assuming that age hasn’t affected McDonagh and the 35-year-old can handle shutdown minutes.
3. Are the Lightning still Cup contenders? The Bolts seemed unstoppable in the early 2020s, winning two straight Cups in 2020 and 2021, and coming two wins away from winning their third straight in the 2022 Stanley Cup Final. But since then, it’s been back-to-back first round exits with a combined three wins in those two playoff runs. Vasilevskiy and Hedman are showing some signs of slowing down, but Kucherov and Point are better than ever, and they just swapped Stamkos with Guentzel to get a bit younger with their core. It’s quite obvious that they want to win still, but as their depth surrounding the core group gets thinner and thinner, these changes might not be enough to put them over the top again.
PREDICTION
The Atlantic Division might be one of the toughest to predict this season. It feels like most of the playoff teams either lost a bit of depth or made lateral moves, while most of the non-playoff teams made big improvements that, on paper, could put them in playoff contention. Tampa was one of the teams that made lateral moves, so I think they’ll be in a similar spot to last year where they are fighting for a playoff spot most of the season. I wouldn’t call them a Cup contender, but if they manage to get a divisional playoff spot, I could see them beating a team similar to them in the first round before they face a true contender and get ousted like they did last year.
