One of the highest honors a rookie in the majors can achieve is being named the Rookie of the Year. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a 2024 NL ROY prediction and pick.
Recently, this award has been to major bats that take the league by storm in their first year. Corbin Carroll won it last year with his amazing year. Further, the likes of Jonathan Indian, Pete Alonso, Ronald Acuna Jr., and Cody Bellinger have been recent winners of the award. A pitcher last won the award in the Covid shorted 2020 season, as Devin Williams took home the hardware. This year, it is a pitcher who is favored to win it. Paul Skenes of the Pittsburgh Pirates looks to take home the award after taking the majors by storm after his call-up. Still, players such as Jackson Merrill and Shota Imanaga look to catch fire and make sure the award goes to them.
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: 2024 NL ROY Odds
Paul Skenes: -1100
Jackson Merrill: +550
Shota Imanaga: +2600
Michael Busch: +4700
Masyn Winn: +5500
Jackson Chourio: +9000
Favorites To Win 2024 NL ROY
Paul Skenes is currently the run-away favorite to win the NL ROY award. He has been dominant this year. Skenes is 6-0 in 11 starts on the year, with a 1.90 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP. Further, he ranks 60th in the majors in strikeouts on the year. No one in front of him has less than 16 starts, and Skenes has done this in 11. He is averaging 12 strikeouts per nine innings of work this year. If he has the same amount of innings as the current MLB leader in strikeouts, Garrett Crochet, Skenes would rank third in the majors in strikeouts this year. Skenes is also already tenth in the majors in pitching War. He has six or more fewer starts than everyone in front of him. He has also already made nine quality starts, and will be starting the all-star game this year.
Jackson Merrill is the other major player for the award. The San Diego Padres center fielder replaced Trent Grisham who left in the Juan Soto trade. He has performed well this year. Among rookie batters with more than 100 at-bats this year, only Xavier Edwards and Spencer Horwitz have a better batting average. He is hitting .278 on the year, which is 32nd among qualified batters. Both Edwards and Horwitz would not qualify for that statistical category. Further, he has 12 home runs, 46 RBIS, and a .745 OPS on the year. He is also currently eighth in the majors in rookie WAR by position but is the only one of the top eight rookies who debuted this year.
Sleepers To Win 2024 NL ROY
If it had not been for the amazing performance from Paul Skenes so far this year, Shota Imanaga would be a major favorite for this award. The Chicago Cubs pitcher has been solid this year. In 17 starts, he is 80-2 with a 2.97 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP. Further, he is tied for 42nd in the majors in strikeouts. To get a run at this award, he will need to return to his form from April and May. In April, Imanaga was 4-9 with a 0.98 ERAS. He is 1-1 in May with a 2.67 ERA, but he allowed runs in just two of five starts. Two bad starts may have derailed his offs though. On May 29th he gave up seven runs in 4.1 innings of work, and then on June 21st, he gave up ten runs in three innings.
Well down the board is Masyn Winn, but he has been solid this year. Winn is 25th in the majors in batting average this year, while sitting with five home runs and 33 RBIs. Further, he is 70th with a .739 OPS on the year. Since his debut on August 18th of 2023, he has led the majors in positional war for batters. Further, he has been a great fielder and is fifth among rookies in RBIs since his debut.
Final 2024 NL ROY Prediction and Pick
This award is for Paul Skenes to win. Only two things could derail Skenes from winning the award. First, would be an injury that takes him out for a prolonged period. The second would be multiple bad starts and Jackson Merrill picking up even more in the second half of the season. Considering Skenes went seven innings without giving up a hit last time out, neither of those seems likely. Paul Skenes will be adding NL ROY of the year to his title of All-Star game starter.
