I guess all that hype about the NFC North being the greatest division in NFL history turned out to be fake news. The conference championship will indeed feature two division rivals, but they come from the NFC East.
The last time that happened was during the Ronald Reagan administration. The Washington Commanders are hoping for better weather and a better outcome than 1986 when gusty wins and a devastating New York Giants defense resulted in a 17-0 defeat.
This year's edition of the Commanders will travel to the Philadelphia Eagles for the 2024 rubber match. A trip to the Super Bowl, which seemed ludicrous when the season began, is on the line.
Normally, a third meeting between the same teams would mean few surprises. But neither team is the same as they were earlier this year. Injuries play a large part in that. So does confidence.
And in figuring out the problems to solve, we can dispense with the standard list.
For instance, if one team has a truly dominant player, shutting them down is crucial. In this case, it would mean the Commanders need to find a way to stop running back Saquon Barkley.
Everyone knows that to win against a strong opponent, you have to limit mistakes. There’s no way the Commanders can beat Philadelphia if they turn the ball over and commit a lot of penalties.
Everyone also knows that time of possession is crucial in tight games. You need to hog the ball. It keeps the opponent’s offense off the field. It wears down their defense. You see the results in the fourth quarter.
The only problem with that analysis is Washington failed to do any of that and still beat these same Eagles in Week 16.
Barkley ran wild — 150 rushing yards and two touchdowns. The Commanders committed five turnovers and six penalties totaling close to 100 yards. And the Eagles had a 12-minute advantage in time of possession.
Washington still managed to win. How did they do it? And how can they repeat that performance in the NFC Championship game?
Here’s what is essential…
Problems the Commanders must solve in NFC Championship game
Commanders' plan for wide receiver involvement
This stat comparison is absurd. In the first game — the Philadelphia victory — the Washington Commanders' wide receivers were targeted 11 times. They caught just four passes for 28 receiving yards. It was the position group’s worst performance of the year.
In the second game, won by the Commanders, those same receivers caught 17 balls for 214 receiving yards and five touchdowns. It would seem fairly obvious that to have success, Kliff Kingsbury and pass game coordinator Brian Johnson need to devise a way to get the ball downfield to Terry McLaurin and his teammates.
Johnson knows the Eagles defense very well. He was their offensive coordinator last season. Starting cornerback Quinyon Mitchell says he is fine, but he had to leave their game against the Los Angeles Rams with a shoulder injury. You can bet the Commanders will test him early to see if can make tackles with that shoulder.
Commanders need a better plan to contain Jalen Carter
The defenses that have given the Washington Commanders the most trouble this season have all looked the same. That is a problem that must be rectified as a matter of urgency.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (in Week 1), Baltimore Ravens, and Pittsburgh Steelers all have powerful interior defensive linemen and fast, active linebackers. The defensive tackles clog running lanes for the backs, forcing rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels to make more plays. Something he always does well, but it's less than ideal.
They collapse the pocket with inside pressure, forcing Daniels to run outside. This is where those speedy linebackers can limit his chunk gains. That’s exactly what the Philadelphia Eagles did in their first game against Washington at Lincoln Financial Field.
Jalen Carter and his fellow interior linemen were dominant. The former first-round pick out of Georgia had seven tackles on his own. Combined with Jordan Davis, Milton Williams, and Moro Ojomo, the Eagles recorded 12 total tackles in just 63 plays. That’s insane production from the defensive tackle spot.
Their dominance allowed dynamic linebackers Zack Baun and Nakobe Dean to clean up with 25 combined tackles. The Eagles held Daniels to just 18 yards on the ground and held the entire team to 3.3 yards per carry on the primetime Thursday Night Football stage.
But in the second game, the Commanders turned the tables. Those tackles were not nearly as effective. Just six total tackles in 64 plays. Washington was able to move the ball with more frequency. There was more balance on offense as a result.
It would be hard enough to control Carter even with Sam Cosmi on the field. However, Washington will not have its best lineman available for the NFC Championship game and a lot longer than that after he tore his ACL against the Detroit Lions.
Whether it’s Trent Scott again, or some other plan involving an untested youngster like Chris Paul or Julian Good-Jones, or even Andrew Wylie shifting inside to guard with Cornelius Lucas playing right tackle, the Commanders must make sure Philadelphia's defensive tackles don’t control the game.
The Eagles have some injury issues to deal with. Dean’s knee will him out and we've already spoken about Quinyon Mitchell's shoulder complication. But if Carter wreaks havoc up front, it may not matter who is lining up behind him.
Containing him is the biggest conundrum facing Kliff Kingsbury and the Commanders' offense. Nothing else will do.
Commanders must not restrict run-stopping plan to Saquon Barkley
First of all, the thing about shutting down Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley is not cut and dried.
True, he had monster statistics in his two meetings with the Washington Commanders. But they mostly came early.
The Commanders figured out ways to slow him down in the second half. And Dan Quinn’s team has been winning both the turnover battle and time of possession through the playoffs to further raise optimism.
It would make their lives a lot easier if they could continue that. But it may not be essential.
And there is another runner who could arguably be more important to counteract than Barkley, as strange as that may sound.
Barkley’s productivity is baked into any Eagles game. He is going to break runs. He may score a long touchdown. He may score on two. As Washington proved against the Detroit Lions, they can survive in a shootout. Jayden Daniels can put points on the board and capitalize on any defensive weaknesses with ease.
But he needs the ball, and that’s where the Eagles next best runner — quarterback Jalen Hurts — becomes the key.
The Commanders cannot let Hurts run for first downs. He may not be quite as elusive as Daniels, but he is very effective. The former Oklahoma standout has run for more than 60 first downs in each of the last three seasons. That’s three to four conversions per game that extend drives and keep the football away from their opponents.
Some of those plays are on his patented sneaks. Others are on scrambles. The Commanders must be ready to counteract both in pursuit of another monumental road upset to reach the Super Bowl.
Like first-year cornerback Quinyon Mitchell, Hurts will not be 100 percent for this weekend's divisional battle. But he will be on the field and he will run when necessary.
Washington won the last game against the Eagles in no small part due to the concussion that knocked Hurts out early. Backup signal-caller Kenny Pickett can throw the ball reasonably well, but he cannot run like the Eagles' No. 1 option at football's most critical position. And the drop-off between the two is substantial.
The Commanders know Barkley will do some damage. They need to make sure Hurts doesn’t also run wild. It's an all-hands-on-deck situation for Joe Whitt Jr.'s improving defense.
If they do, they might be heading to New Orleans as the NFC's representative on the biggest stage of all.
