The Kansas City Chiefs play the New Orleans Saints on Monday Night Football tonight. Here are the 3 keys to stopping the Saints offense.
The Kansas City Chiefs will take on an up-and-down New Orleans Saints team tonight at Arrowhead Stadium on Monday Night Football. The Chiefs are undefeated, despite some ugly play (especially on offense), and are the betting favorites in this game. The Saints sit at 2-2 on the season. In their two wins, their offense exploded for 91 total points, but in their two losses, they averaged just 18 points per game. So what is the secret to keeping the Saints' offense in check?
I'm already on record as feeling that the Chiefs should embrace a more run-heavy approach on offense to control the time of possession and lean on their defense. If that ends up being the case, there are some things the defense can do to keep the Saints from playing the explosive and high-scoring type of offense that they want.
The good news for Chiefs fans is that the Chiefs defense is off to a good start on the season and Steve Spagnuolo's squad will likely prioritize these three keys that should get the job done in this game.
1. The Chiefs defense must contain Alvin Kamara
The Saints offense is built around Alvin Kamara and their run game. Kamara is a great check-down weapon out of the backfield, but it isn't his pass catching that the Chiefs need to focus on. That may sound crazy to some, but Kamara has much better receiving numbers in their losses (10 receptions for 82 yards) than in their wins (5 receptions for 27 yards). That's because the Saints' offense is successful when they run the ball effectively with Kamara and then attack down the field in the passing game instead of having to check down all the time.
So step one of taking away what the Saints want to do is not letting Kamara be highly effective on the ground. Kamara is averaging 5.7 yards per carry with 4 rushing touchdowns in the Saints wins, 3.6 yards per carry, and just 1 rushing touchdown in their losses. The good news is that the Chiefs have been great at containing lead running backs this season.
Derrick Henry averaged 3.5 yards per carry against Kansas City, but is averaging 6.4 yards per carry against everyone else. Bijan Robinson averaged 1.9 yards per carry against the Chiefs but is averaging 5.0 yards per carry against everyone else. J.K. Dobbins averaged 2.3 yards per carry against KC, but he's averaging 7.4 yards per carry against everyone else. Kamara is averaging 4.5 yards per carry so far this season, but if KC continues their trend of holding running backs well below their average it will go a long way toward shutting down the Saints' offense.
2. The Chiefs defense can't let Rashid Shaheed beat them deep
While Chris Olave may lead the Saints in receptions and receiving yards and is the biggest name pass catcher on the roster, it's been the play and production of Rashid Shaheed that has contrasted the most in their wins and losses. Shaheed is one of the best pure deep threats in the league. In the Saints' two wins where they put up over 40 points they combined Kamara's success on the ground with Shaheed taking the top off the defense.
Shaheed had 3 receptions for 73 yards, including a 59-yard touchdown catch against the Carolina Panthers and then had 4 receptions for 96 yards, including a 70-yard touchdown catch against the Dallas Cowboys. So Shaheed averaged 24 yards per reception and had a 50+ yard touchdown in each of their wins. He was then held without a catch in their 15-12 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles and had 8 catches for 83 yards (10.4 yards per catch) and no touchdowns in their loss to the Atlanta Falcons.
So even when the Saints got Shaheed regularly involved against the Falcons, he wasn't able to find success attacking them downfield with big plays. That is where the key will be for the Chiefs. They need to keep Shaheed from getting behind the defense.
Will Trent McDuffie be matched up with Shaheed or will the Chiefs decide to use him on Chris Olave? Jaylen Watson had a great game against the Los Angeles Chargers last week, but does he have the long speed to keep up with Shaheed? Will the Chiefs have to keep a safety back deep shadowing his side deep? If so, could that hurt their ability to contain Kamara in the ground game? This will be another interesting thing to watch.
3. The Chiefs need to rattle Derek Carr
Derek Carr is one of those quarterbacks who is definitely good enough to hurt you if he's allowed to sit in the pocket and find open receivers. What has kept Carr from becoming a big-time quarterback is that he tends to fall apart when things break down. If the run game isn't working, if the other team is getting constant pressure on him, if he has to force things because they are behind, his play drops off dramatically.
We've seen Carr have his fair share of meltdowns versus the Chiefs during his time with the Las Vegas Raiders. If Steve Spagnuolo can keep Carr uncomfortable in the pocket, it will be hard for the Saints to find much offensive rhythm, especially if they aren't getting a lot of production in the run game. If Chris Jones can cause some disruption up the middle and Spagnuolo can catch Carr off guard with a few strategic blitzes, it could be a long day for the Saints.
Frankly, if the Chiefs do the first two things on this list, it will already go a long way toward making Carr uncomfortable. The Saints' offense succeeded in their two early wins in large part because of Kamara's success on the ground and Shaheed's big touchdown catches. If K.C. can take those two things away there is a chance that Carr will start pressing. Then if you mix in some pressure getting home, he has been known to turn the ball over.
So there you have it Chiefs fans. Those are the three keys to stopping the Saints offense. With the Chiefs own offense down some playmakers, they will likely need their defense to come through again in this game. Do you like the Chiefs chances of getting these things done? I especially like their ability to stop the run and their ability to get some pressure on Carr. I do worry a little about Shaheed making a big play, but I'd love to read your thoughts on this matchup in the comments below.
