If the regular season is a dress rehearsal for the playoffs — an analogy the Lightning often use — then they’re currently going through their final act.
There are only four games remaining and still a lot to be decided. If the Lightning earn at least one point Friday against the Red Wings at Amalie Arena or Ottawa loses to Montreal, Tampa Bay will guarantee itself a top-three finish in the Atlantic Division.
But much still needs to play out to see where the Lightning (45-26-7) slot. After Wednesday’s overtime loss to the Maple Leafs, they were second in the division, trailing Toronto by three points and leading Florida by three. Each team had four games remaining.
Finishing first would ensure the Lightning home ice for at least the first two rounds. A second-place finish would give them that advantage for at least the opening round. At this point, Tampa Bay could draw any of four different first-round opponents: Toronto, Florida, Ottawa or Montreal.
Here are four key factors to watch as the Lightning complete the regular season and ramp up for the playoffs.
Taking advantage of a favorable schedule
Three of the Lightning’s remaining four games are against teams — the Red Wings, Sabres and Rangers currently outside the playoff picture. It’s not to say those teams won’t be a challenge — Buffalo is one of the conference’s hottest, going 8-2-0 in its past 10 games before Thursday — but they have less to play for.
The big game that stands out is Tuesday’s home finale against the Panthers, which could have a big impact on the standings. But Florida will come to Tampa for the second of back-to-back games after playing the Rangers Monday at home.
Detroit and Buffalo also will be playing the Lightning after games in Sunrise the previous night. So, conceivably, Tampa Bay will be playing teams with tired legs and potentially facing backup goaltenders.
Still, it doesn’t make for an automatic two points. It didn’t help Wednesday, when Toronto started backup Anthony Stolarz after playing Tuesday in Sunrise. The Leafs jumped on the Lightning early and won in overtime.
Trying to find as complete a game as possible
No team will play perfectly in the playoffs, but mistakes are magnified in the postseason and inopportune timing could cost a team its season. For the most part, the Lightning have limited their mistakes in the second half of the season.
Still, Wednesday was an example of how a game — and a series — could get away from a team quickly. It’s one thing to have a defensive-zone turnover end up in the back of your net early, as Toronto’s aggressive forecheck forced a Brandon Hagel turnover that led to Mitch Marner’s goal 73 seconds in. But another bad turnover that led to a two-goal hole 2 minutes, 20 seconds later just isn’t a winning formula.
The Lightning might have outplayed the Maple Leafs from there, but they needed everything to climb back into the game and salvage a point. Having to dig out from such early holes takes a physical and mental toll over the course of a postseason series, and that’s especially the case if the Lightning continue to go with an 11-forward, seven-defenseman lineup in the postseason.
A power play that has everyone guessing
There have been times this year when the Lightning power play left fans pulling out their hair. They’ve tried many personnel combinations and setups. Steven Stamkos’ one-timer isn’t coming back any time soon, so they’ve had to reinvent the way they do some things.
Recently, they seemed to realize that they had been too stationery as a unit, leading to some stagnant play and too much passing that wasn’t leading to shots on goal. In the past two games, they’ve added more movement, with Brayden Point moving from his usual bumper position to the wing, where he can use his speed to find space. Nikita Kucherov has branched out, too, extending the entire right side of the ice.
Kucherov usually likes to set up low in the right circle, but he’s also floating out to the top, which is drawing defenses toward him and opening up space in front of the net. Monday against the Rangers, Kucherov found Jake Guentzel down low twice, and Guentzel set up Point for two power-play goals.
What might be most reassuring is how comfortable Oliver Bjorkstrand seems to be in the bumper spot. It’s probably where he can be best utilized, at least for now, because he has a hard, quick, right-shot release. If Bjorkstrand can establish himself there, the Lightning are back to where they were — a power play that forced defenses to pick their poison and pay the price.
Filling the tank for Vasilevskiy
Andrei Vasilevskiy is clearly back to his pre-surgery self. His numbers and his durability have shown it. Now it’s about, in his words, “filling the tank” in preparation for a long postseason run.
Vasilevskiy has seen how the Lightning have protected the ice in front of him. Combine that with how much better he feels physically 19 months after lower-back surgery, and he’s a confident player going into the playoffs.
Vasilevskiy is aware of the physical and mental grind of the postseason, and he’ll get a start in at least one of the final four games to recharge (the guess is either Friday against Detroit or Sunday versus Buffalo).
If the regular season finale April 17 in New York doesn’t mean anything, Vasilevskiy might not even go on the trip. Remember back in 2021, he didn’t travel to Detroit for a two-game series late in the season. That was a shorter season, but the emphasis on resting Vasilevskiy paid off, and he won the Conn Smythe Trophy that postseason.
