Brock Purdy was a winner last week without playing a game.
The San Francisco 49ers quarterback has previously insisted he is not in any way thinking about the contract extension he will likely earn next offseason. That deal, assuming Purdy continues on his upward trajectory, will make him one the highest-paid players in the NFL.
But he got good news in relation to his contractual future as the Jacksonville Jaguars signed Trevor Lawrence to an extension worth $55 million annually, tying Joe Burrow for the biggest contract in NFL history by average annual value.
It's a sign of just how remarkable Purdy's journey has been that, as NBC Sports Bay Area's Matt Maiocco put it (h/t 49ers Webzone), Lawrence's contract should be seen as the floor for the 49ers' signal-caller with his prospective new deal. Lawrence entered the NFL as a generational quarterback prospect and first overall pick in 2021. Purdy was the last pick of the draft by the Niners the following year.
Such statements have brought the usual social media sneers and derisive comments from Purdy doubters who deride the prospect of the 49ers paying him at a potentially record-breaking level.
One of the main points of contention among those who believe Purdy is not worthy of being paid more than Lawrence is the way in which the Jaguars quarterback has regularly been hamstrung by his supporting cast. By contrast, Purdy plays in the most quarterback-friendly system in the NFL with a cavalcade of dynamic playmakers.
There is statistical evidence to support that argument. Ben Baldwin, who runs the site rbsdm.com, recently published a ranking of quarterbacks by adjusted Expected Points Added per play over the last two seasons, crucially tossing out Lawrence's 2021 rookie season played for the most part under the dismal 'leadership' of Urban Meyer.
Adjusted EPA adjusts for pass protection, receiver drops, dropped interceptions, luck on interceptable passes, fumble recoveries, and interception returns. The only additional element quarterbacks are given credit for is expected yards after the catch, while the formula also accounts for defenses faced.
Purdy led the league in EPA per play (0.29) over the last two seasons, however, in adjusted EPA per play he falls to fifth (0.18). Lawrence, meanwhile, rises from 0.09 EPA per play to 0.15, putting him seventh overall.
Lawrence is a more talented quarterback than Purdy and the vastly reduced gap when the raw EPA numbers are adjusted lends credence to the view that the 49ers quarterback is not worthy of a bigger contract than the Jaguars star.
But to make such a statement is to ignore the wider context. The quarterback market reaches new heights almost every offseason, with the next big deal typically the largest in league history by annual salary.
Even with all the adjustments made to the EPA formula, Purdy has still been a top-five quarterback by that metric, albeit with significant help from a supporting cast that thrives making big plays in the open field. He is a quarterback who processes superbly and has added new dimensions to the Kyle Shanahan offense in over 30 starts across the regular season and postseason.
Purdy was the best deep passer in the NFL by EPA last season, his downfield prowess and ambition to consistently attack deep representing a huge diversion from what the 49ers were used to with Jimmy Garoppolo. On top of that, Purdy has consistently demonstrated excellent playmaking ability and a proclivity for improvisation when under pressure, with his underrated athleticism making him a threat to make plays as a scrambler.
Across the 2023 regular season and postseason, only three quarterbacks (Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray and Jalen Hurts) had a higher Pro Football Focus grade as a runner when under pressure, and Purdy's success in making plays with his legs keyed both of the comebacks that got the 49ers to the Super Bowl.
Comparisons to Lawrence miss the point when discussing Purdy's contract. If Purdy continues to perform at level where he remains among the top five quarterbacks in efficiency metrics while elevating the offense significantly from the Shanahan baseline with his big-play upside, he will unquestionably be worthy of an extension in line with the quarterback market's rise. Rightly or wrongly, that will mean him surpassing Lawrence.
