The preseason is finally over. Who's got the golden ticket to the 49ers' final 53-man roster?
The final cut-down to 53 players on the roster is one of the most chaotic times of the league year.
For the San Francisco 49ers, it might be more chaotic than normal, with a couple of procedural moves to get done and a few outstanding contract situations (that you might have read something about) to resolve.
To avoid doubt and prevent this piece from rivaling a Tolstoy novel, this projected roster is the final 53-man roster after completing all the procedural moves. Assumptions are made the Niners can get back the players they have to cut to get injured linebacker Dre Greenlaw, for example, onto the PUP list but remain eligible to return this season.
Also, an assumption is made that both wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk and left tackle Trent Williams' contract situations are resolved. In Aiyuk's case, it doesn't actually change the projection, as he's on the active roster as it stands, due to his hold-in.
Oh, and this is a projection of what the 49ers will do, not what this writer thinks the 49ers should do. I'll try and explain the differences as we go.
Let's get started.
Quarterback (3) - Brock Purdy, Joshua Dobbs, Brandon Allen
What might be interesting here is if one of the two backups can bring some value in a trade. There doesn't seem to be much between them, and the room's solid. The 49ers may keep undrafted rookie Tanner Mordecai around on the practice squad. He maximised his minutes in the preseason and could have something long-term, particularly with both backups on short-term deals.
Outside of that, the team will likely keep all three. Exposing any to waivers, particularly Dobbs, feels like a risk not worth taking.
Skill Positions
Running Back/Fullback (5) - Christian McCaffrey, Jordan Mason, Elijah Mitchell, Isaac Guerendo, Kyle Juszczyk
These cuts aren't difficult. It's the four best running backs on the team and the eternal, inevitable fullback in Kyle Juszczyk. The only storyline here was Isaac Guerendo's injury and missed time, but he showed enough in Friday's preseason game with the Las Vegas Raiders (both at running back, and crucially, on special teams as a returner) to have kept his spot.
It probably helped him that none of Cody Schrader, Patrick Taylor, Matt Breida or Ke'Shawn Vaughan made this decision difficult either; neither standing out at any point during preseason action.
Juszczyk continues on like Old Man River. His spot wasn't even in question or being competed for.
Wide Receiver (6) - Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, Jauan Jennings, Jacob Cowing, Ricky Pearsall, Chris Conley
Remember this mantra for some of these cuts: NFL teams, particularly the teams contending, as the 49ers expect to do, are conservative. For that reason, it's the obvious five (the top three wideouts and the two newest draft picks), and then Chris Conley, who is having an Indian summer to his career with San Francisco. His hard work, versatility, and consistency on special teams earn him the last spot, as neither Ronnie Bell or Danny Gray could impress enough to push him off the roster.
Unless Pearsall goes on the PUP list, which isn't projected here, neither of them is making the active roster. One or more of the cuts, even a guy like Robbie Chosen, could be on the practice squad. Bell likely has the inside track to that.
Tight End (4) - George Kittle, Eric Saubert, Brayden Willis, Cameron Latu
This is the first tough one on this projection. George Kittle has a spot until his legs fall off, and Eric Saubert has parlayed his yeoman's effort as a blocker into a roster spot. But beyond that, things get a little murky.
The 49ers have traditionally kept four tight ends, so that's been stuck to here. But the difficult decisions are around which of the final few to keep.
It's probably a year too early for Mason Pline, and Logan Thomas hasn't added enough value, but Brayden Willis, Cameron Latu and Jake Tonges are all battling for Nos. 3 and 4. Willis' versatility has likely insulated him from any problems, meaning that Tonges is battling it straight out with former third-rounder Latu.
The 49ers are likely to take the bet on potential and stick with Latu, although Tonges has arguably had the better offseason.
The Trenches
Offensive Line (9) - Trent Williams, Aaron Banks, Jake Brendel, Dominick Puni, Colton McKivitz, Jaylon Moore, Nick Zakelj, Spencer Burford, Chris Hubbard
The back end of these picks could go either way, but the starting five aren't a surprise, particularly as Dominick Puni has ascended rapidly throughout preseason. Spencer Burford keeps his spot as the team continues to bet on his potential (and his only likely competition, Jon Feliciano, will start the season on IR), with Nick Zakelj's versatility also saving his job.
Jaylon Moore and Chris Hubbard are both capable tackles, and given the uncertainty around Trent Williams, as well as McKivitz's up-and-down play, both are projected to remain here.
The main battles here are probably between Hubbard, Zakelj, and someone equally as versatile as Ben Bartch, or developing rookie Jarrett Kingston. If the 49ers decide to go a tackle lighter, Kingston might make the roster. It seems more likely he'd be ticketed for the practice squad, though, while Bartch, despite some positive comments from Chris Foerster, didn't seem to distinguish himself enough to land a role.
Defensive Line (8) - Nick Bosa, Maliek Collins, Javon Hargrave, Jordan Elliott, Leonard Floyd, Yetur Gross-Matos, Kevin Givens, Robert Beal
This is light for the Niners' usual load on the defensive line, and it speaks to the "big on quality, short on depth" nature of the position.
There's a chance they could enter the trade market at this position, possibly for a role player similar to previous 49ers captures like Jordan Willis and Charles Omenihu, particularly if injuries sustained by Leonard Floyd and Yetur Gross-Matos are more severe than they appear.
Kalia Davis, will, during all the moves, go on IR designated to return, as he's expected to miss half the season. If he can shake the injury bug, he seems to have real talent.
Robert Beal just edges out Alex Barrett, as it feels like the team sees more potential in the second-year player, in spite of the fact that he has yet to produce at the level his athletic talents could suggest. That said, Barrett got first go in the rotation in Friday's game against the Raiders, so might he have the inside track?
Linebackers
Linebacker (6) - Fred Warner, De'Vondre Campbell, Demetrius Flanningan-Fowles, Jalen Graham, Dee Winters, Curtis Robinson
This must be the hardest spot to call, as anyone cut is an NFL-standard player.
The fact that someone will have to be cut initially to allow Dre Greenlaw to go on the PUP list is probably the biggest risk facing the 49ers over the next few days. A linebacker-needy team will almost certainly be watching the team's transactions there closely.
Could there be an opportunity for the Niners to gain some capital here in a trade, as they have done with the likes of Jonas Griffith in the past?
The six ultimately retained are the players San Francisco seems to like the most, while it would be tempting (certainly for this writer!) to keep Tatum Bethune over someone like Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles, who has little upside, the fact that one of the veterans (in Greenlaw) is missing for the beginning of the season makes projecting the 49ers keeping a solid veteran simpler.
Curtis Robinson deserves some credit, as well, for scrapping hard to make the roster. He's been solid throughout the preseason and particularly consistent on special teams. He deserves his opportunity.
It feels harsh to project Bethune to miss out on a roster spot, but the 49ers will hope he can slide to the practice squad, because with a year's seasoning, he could find himself in a great battle next season between himself, Dee Winters and Jalen Graham for starting spots on the team.
Defensive Backs
Cornerback (5) - Charvarius Ward, Deommodore Lenoir. Isaac Yiadom, Renardo Green, Darrell Luter Jr.
This could be light, as the team could keep six corners, but given that Rock Ya-Sin could probably be slid to the practice squad, the numbers game works against him here.
This five is not especially hard to pick, and it might be the best the 49ers cornerback room has looked in the John Lynch/Kyle Shanahan era. The only real question was if Darrell Luter Jr. could do enough to hold a spot on the roster, and with some solid play in extended action against the Raiders, it looks like he has done so.
Ya-Sin has had a good preseason and will likely be kept around as a depth option on the practice squad, while Samuel Womack has flashed some good play, but ultimately buttressed it with too much inconsistency to be considered for a roster spot, especially considering what's in front of him.
Safety (4) - Ji'Ayir Brown, George Odum, Malik Mustapha, Talanoa Hufanga
There's little drama here, as Ji'Ayir Brown is an ascending star, Malik Mustapha is a well-regarded rookie, and George Odum is a competent veteran who produces good special teams play.
The main question here will be if Talanoa Hufanga is on the roster for Week 1, or whether he'll be eventually moved to the PUP list to allow him more time to get game-ready after his ACL tear last season.
If he is, the team could either go with another safety, perhaps veteran Tracy Walker, or use the extra spot at another position, such as cornerback above.
The projection here, though, is that the team keeps Hufanga on the Week 1 roster, even if he doesn't immediately start and works his way back in slowly.
The Specialists
K (1) - Jake Moody
P (1) - Mitch Wishnowsky
LS (1) - Taybor Pepper
This has ended up being a little more interesting than I expected it to be, given Pressley Harvin III's competent handling of punting duties while Wishnowsky basically took the summer off with a nagging knee injury.
Part of me would like to project a shock change of punter here, given cap considerations, age considerations, and Wishnowsky's nagging injury, but remembering our mantra about NFL teams being conservative, the projection here is that there will be no change to the roster as it stands.
Wishnowsky's injury status could be worth watching, though.
And that's it. That's the 53 men who will have our happiness in their hands every Sunday, Monday, or Thursday for the next four months.
What do you project the 49ers roster will be?
See you on the other side.
