Trade talks for Deebo Samuel are reportedly at the point where specifics are being discussed and a deal seems likely, let’s get into it.
1. What’s going on with the Deebo trade talks?
Plenty of teams are interested, including Denver, Pittsburgh and Washington. The cap hit isn’t quite as severe if Samuel is cut after June 1st. However, he has a $15.4 million roster bonus due on March 22nd.
Fans focus exclusively on cap hits, ownership focuses on outlays. I expect ownership to want Samuel moved before the bonus comes due to avoid the outlay. Which means a $10 million cap hit this year and a $21.5 million cap hit next year. In exchange for a 4th or 5th round pick. This is another example of why the Niners need to hire an outside GM.
The rising salary cap led to a vote last year where owners allowed themselves to sell up to a 10% stake in their team to private equity firms. The Niners are one of several teams exploring the possibility now. This doesn’t mean owners are looking to sell out soon, but as the cost of doing business in the NFL skyrockets, several ownership groups will need to sell equity to meet the growing capital requirements.
2. What will the Niners have to spend on outside free agents?
Initial estimates from cap guru Jason Hurley of 49erscap.com projected a $280 million salary cap, and that’s proving to be accurate. Hurley forecast $40-$45 million for outside free agents a few weeks ago, including extensions for Brock Purdy, Fred Warner, George Kittle, Jauan Jennings and Jordan Mason, as well as some depth signings. That was before the Deebo news, and also assumed paying Dre Greenlaw a one year $6M deal.
Recalibrating based on Greenlaw leaving, dealing Deebo, and the team wanting to carry over at least $10 to $15 million in cap room next year, the budget drops. Purdy’s 2025 cap hit is forecast for $13 to $16 million depending on the signing bonus. Extensions for Warner and Kittle can save $15 million to $23.7 million.
Once the smoke clears, that leaves around $25 million to spend on outside free agents.
3. Who could the Niners target in free agency?
Fans want to see the Niners sign Atlanta center Drew Dalman. However, nfl.com’s Gregg Rosenthal reported this week that since supply and demand is so severe in the league at offensive line, Dalman could get up to $20 million per year in a bidding war. Pro Football Focus projects Dalman will receive $11.5 million per in a four-year deal. $15 million per year seems reasonable in light of Rosenthal’s report, and that would likely price the Niners out.
Jon Feliciano announced his retirement this week, putting some pressure on the Niners to re-sign Ben Bartch. He may be part of the solution at center, competing against late-season signing Matt Hennessy for the starting job. With so few starting centers available in the draft, as low as three according to some analysts, a Hennessy-Bartch solution at center seems more likely.
On Greenlaw, defensive coordinator Robert Saleh is reportedly "adamant" that the Niners re-sign him. However, Greenlaw may be adamant about leaving. Reports indicate Greenlaw is looking to leave to be LB1 for a new club with the money and recognition it brings.
Greenlaw has been one of the top linebackers in the league for years but hasn’t been given awards to reflect that. If he’s looking for the bag and acclaim, he may have to leave. All will depend on if he receives multi-year offers in free agency.
If Greenlaw moves on, Saleh may push for an expensive replacement in free agency. Kansas City‘s Nick Bolton is about to turn 25 and PFF projects him at $15 million per year. He could be a target. Philadelphia’s Zach Baun is at $13.3 million per year, The Jets’ Jamien Sherwood is much more affordable at $7.75 million per year.
Rookie linebackers are typically taking three years to develop into full-time starters, that may lead the Niners to look for a short cut with Bolton.
Safety could be another possibility for a big swing. Miami’s Jevon Holland leads the market at $19.5 million, the Bills are rumored to be interested. The Niners could look at Minnesota’s Cam Bynum, 26, three picks last year, and led safeties in solo tackles in 2023. PFF projects him for a three-year deal at $14.25 million per year.
4. Lots of talk of potential acquisitions, Myles Garrett, Maxx Crosby, Micah Parsons, Davante Adams, Joey Bosa, are any of them realistic?
Bosa, if he’s willing to take a cheap team-friendly deal. If Garrett is made available, I think it’ll become a bidding war requiring at least two 1st round picks and the Niners bow out. Crosby, I’ve said Mark Davis hates the Niners and will not deal with them as he proved with Khalil Mack. Vegas doesn’t matter, neither does Brady, what matters is Davis. Al was notorious for grudges. Parsons, even Jerry Jones isn’t that dumb. Adams talked up the Chargers this week. They have the cap room and the need.
On to the combine. Testing begins Thursday with the defensive line and linebackers. Starting with a bang.
