Training camps have opened and we’re mere weeks away from the San Francisco 49ers preseason opener against the Tennessee Titans on August 10. There’s been no movement on Trent Williams or Brandon Aiyuk‘s contract holdouts (or hold-in for Aiyuk), but that won’t stop us from taking a look at the 2024 NFL season, making five bold predictions for the 49ers.
Coming off another season of improvement but ultimately heartbreak, the 49ers mindset has to be Super Bowl or bust. Even without the Williams/Aiyuk contract stalemate, the 49ers are staring at a Brock Purdy payday potentially in the $300 million range. They have to go for it this season.
49ers Bold Prediction No. 1
Christian McCaffery Wins NFL MVP
The NFL MVP award doesn’t often go to RBs, unless they put together a season for the ages. It’s been 12 seasons since a RB secured the honor, when Adrian Peterson of the Minnesota Vikings ran for 2,097 yards. He totaled 388 touches and 2,314 yards from scrimmage that season.
Christian McCaffery averaged the same amount of yards per touch (6.0) but had fewer touches in 2023 (339). Purdy and the 49ers will lean on McCaffery as much as ever, pushing him to gain 2,300 yards, scoring 20 touchdowns and winning his first NFL MVP.
49ers Bold Prediction No. 2
The Team Will Go 3-3 Over First Six Weeks
If you’ve peeked at the schedule, you’ll notice a three-game stretch in October that will act as a litmus test for this team’s championship aspirations. The 49ers travel to Seattle in Week 6, then come home for Kansas City and Dallas in Weeks 7 and 8.
It’s easy to overlook the beginning of the schedule, specifically the Vikings/Rams/Patriots/Cardinals portion, but it’s important to remember that with holdouts and significant turnover on the defensive side, the 49ers won’t have the luxury of continuity. They’ll sputter early, then hit their groove heading into and past the Week 9 bye.
49ers Bold Prediction No. 3
Nick Sorensen Is Going To Be Unfairly Criticized
Yes, the 49ers defense is on a streak of five consecutive seasons in which they’ve finished in the top-8 in yards allowed. And yes, they were No. 3 in points allowed in 2023 and No. 1 in 2022, but it’s not all it’s cracked up to be.
The 49ers were very opportunistic on defense last season, forcing the fifth-most turnovers (28) in the NFL, resulting in a whopping 15.5% of opponent’s drives ending in a turnover. What’s easy to overlook is the fact that they placed 27th in plays allowed per drive (6.2) and 23rd in time per drive (2:49). Thank goodness for their No. 1 ranking in the opponent’s starting field position (26.2).
Add the litany of new players on defense to the fact that keeping up that turnover rate will be extremely difficult, and you’ll get a defense that plays more like they should. Sorensen will get flak, but it’s just that the 49ers defense has been more on the outlier side of chance as of late.
49ers Bold Prediction No. 4
Brock Purdy’s Stats Take a Step Back, Intentionally
In a perfect world, the 49ers would be able to control the ball on the ground, play great defense and win games by keeping the opposing offense off the field. This plays into the first bold prediction, that McCaffery is going to shoulder the load even more than before.
Having an all-pro lineman and his No. 1 receiver holding out means Purdy’s ability to light up the scoreboard will be stunted. That means a lot more McCaffery, a lot more taking the underneath throws and a step back statistically.
49ers Bold Prediction No. 5
Brandon Aiyuk Will Wear a Different Jersey In 2025
Amid a slew of trade rumors and contract nonsense, Aiyuk reported to 49ers training camp, but he’s not participating. Mike Garofolo posted on X that John Lynch “fully intends on Brandon being a Niner.”
As with any holdout, the game of chicken can bleed into the regular season, leaving no winners. If Aiyuk holds out and the 49ers do well without him, his value sinks. If he plays and does poorly, his value sinks. If he plays and does well, the 49ers are against a wall, as opposing GMs know they have leverage in trading for a player who wants out.
It’s a bad situation that should have been handled long ago. Aiyuk will play in 2024, but the damage has been done. Look for him to get traded next offseason, when the 49ers can get picks, pay Purdy and move on.
