A few thoughts about new Cubs lefthander Matthew Boyd

As you know, the Cubs signed lefthander Matthew Boyd to a two-year, $29 million contract very early Monday. The signing has not yet been officially announced by the team.

You can read Josh’s thoughts about Boyd at the link above. But I also have opinions! So here they are.

Boyd was the Blue Jays’ sixth-round pick in 2013 out of Oregon State. Two years later he was included in the deal that sent David Price from the Tigers to the Jays. The Tigers put him right in their rotation and the results weren’t good (6.57 ERA, 1.480 WHIP in 11 games — 10 starts).

Over time, Boyd had a couple of good years for Detroit, even as their team got worse after appearing in several postseasons. In 2019, he put together a 3.8 bWAR season (4.56 ERA) even while allowing a MLB-leading 39 home runs. In 2022 Boyd signed with the Giants as a free agent, but never pitched at all for them due to injuries. Instead he wound up traded to the Mariners in August 2022, pitched reasonably well in relief for them (10 games, 1.35 ERA), spent another season in Detroit in 2023 ... or part of one, anyway, as he had Tommy John surgery in June 2023 and didn’t return until August 2024. At that point he had signed with the Guardians.

You probably remember Boyd’s first start back after TJS. It was against the Cubs Aug. 13 in Cleveland. The photo at the top of this post is from that game.

He utterly baffled Cubs hitters through 80 pitches.

Boyd made eight starts during the 2024 season and three more in the postseason. So that’s 11 total starts and 51⅓ innings, during which he posted a 2.28 ERA and 1.130 WHIP, with just four home runs allowed.

That’s really good!

It’s also a really small sample size!

Further, Boyd’s overall performance in 2024 was far better than any season of his career, even with the small sample size. His K rate and walk rate were his best since 2019.

So is this for real, or did Jed Hoyer and Carter Hawkins get fooled by the small sample size?

That’s a question that can only be answered by Boyd’s performance for the Cubs in 2025. Boyd has had a reputation as a flyball pitcher, and of course that home run rate from years past would seem to confirm that. On the other hand, Boyd allowed very few home runs in that small sample size in 2024. Perhaps he can continue along those lines.

Essentially, what the Cubs have done here is replaced Kyle Hendricks in the rotation, at slightly less money than The Professor made in 2024. It seems likely that Boyd will provide better pitching than Hendricks did in 2024. If so, then that’s an improvement, and yes, the Cubs still have room to add another starting pitcher.

I am hoping that starting pitcher will be Roki Sasaki. If the Cubs did that, Javier Assad could move into a swingman role, something he did quite well for the team in the past. Having Sasaki, Shōta Imanaga and Justin Steele as your top three starters can, I believe, match with just about any team in baseball. That would make Jameson Taillon the fourth starter — and that’s a pretty darn good fourth starter, I think, with Boyd following as the No. 5.

Is this a great signing? No, of course it’s not. Is it a bad signing? No, I don’t think it’s bad, either. For what Boyd can provide, I think it’s perfectly reasonable.