If there has been an overarching theme to the Tampa Bay Lightning’s recent stretch of post-Stanley Cup playoff appearances (aside from first-round exits), it’s been the lack of input from rookies. In fact, over the last three seasons, only 13 rookies have appeared in the line-up with only 8 of those players appearing in more than 10 games. The Bolts have leaned heavily on veteran players as they’ve desperately clung to their position as one of the better teams in the league.
Part of that has been due to the fact that they have, for the most part, had a pretty good rotation of players under long-term contract to fill top-nine roles on the team despite free agency whittling away their depth year after year. They’ve also had a general manager in Julien BriseBois that prefers to fill out the bottom-six with veteran players on short-term deals.
Factor in Mr. BriseBois’ use of top picks to acquire NHL talent instead of, you know, drafting players that can move through the ranks at an accelerated pace, and the Lightning have been in a position where just hasn’t been a lot of high-end talent knocking on the door demanding a spot on the NHL roster.
However, over the last two seasons, that seems to have changed just a bit. Over the last two years, 10 skaters have made their NHL debut for the Lightning, and just last season, six players who were considered rookies suited up for the Bolts. Not only did we see a nice influx of young talent, two of those players were regulars in the line-up. Gage Goncalves played in 60 games, which is the most for any rookie since Nick Perbix appeared in 69 back in 2022-23, and it’s the fourth most games played by a rookie in the Julien BriseBois Era that dates back to 2018-19. Conor Geekie, a surprise addition to the opening night roster last season appeared in 52 games, the eighth most appearances since 2018-19.
As the Lightning continue their post-Steven Stamkos evolution, and as their current crop of prospects near NHL readiness, expect to see more debuts next season. The $25,000 question is – will any of these players have a lasting impact on the franchise, or will they fade off to other organizations once their rights expire? Clouded in mystery the future is. However, we can take a look at last season’s crop of rookies and see if their play is any indication of their future with the Bolts.
Jack Finley
1 game, 0 points, 8:25 TOI
The big forward with big injury issues made his NHL debut in January, replacing Gage Goncalves, who had been assigned to Syracuse. Due to Brayden “Alarm Clock” Point sitting out the game as a healthy scratch due to missing a team meeting, Finley made his debut against the Boston Bruins and acquitted himself just fine in the Lightning’s 6-2 loss.
Getting to play in the NHL was a nice bonus for the 22-year-old, but the key to last season was for him to stay healthy, which he did for the most part. Despite not starting his season until mid-December as recovered from an upper-body injury he appeared in 40 games for the Crunch and recorded 28 points (14 goals, 14 assists). A healthy off-season should put him in a spot where he could compete for a bottom-six role with the Lightning at training camp this fall.
Dylan Duke
2 games, 1 goal, 7:52 TOI
One of the players Finley could be competing with is Dylan Duke. The young forward had a pretty solid first season with the Crunch as he put up 40 points (20 goals, 20 assists) in 62 games, which earned him a brief cup of coffee with the Lightning in February, just prior to the 4 Nations Face-Off break. He made the most of his time with the Bolts as he picked up his first NHL goal.
The Lightning can use someone who makes the front of the net his home, and that has been Duke’s calling card since college. He should be knocking on the NHL door next season.
Declan Carlile
3 games, 1 goal, 13:00 TOI
Declan Carlile also picked up his first career NHL goal in a brief stint with the Lightning this season. After consecutive 20+ point seasons with the Crunch, the Michigan native had a bit of a disappointing season with 16 points (6 goals, 10 assists) in 55 games. His season came to an early end as he missed the last month of the season. Going into next season he’ll no longer be waivers-exempt and could get a long look in training camp as the 6th or 7th defenseman.
Max Crozier
5 games, 0 points, 16:41 TOI
If Nick Perbix moves on in free agency this summer, there is a good chance that Max Crozier is right there to fill his spot. Despite missing about a month of play in November and December, the 25-year-old put up career numbers with Syracuse, recording 34 points (9 goals, 25 assists) in 52 games. Much like in 2023-24, when he appeared in 13 games with the Bolts, he didn’t look out of place at the NHL level during his 5-game stint when he filled in due to injuries on the Lightning blueline.
It was a positive, if be it small, sample size for Crozier as the Lightning posted a 55.715 edge in expected goals, and a 53.62% advantage in scoring chances while he was on the ice last season. Of all of the in-house defensemen on the roster, Crozier has the most likely chance of needing to find a place to live in Tampa next season. He is a restricted free agent with arbitration rights this summer, so the team will need to hammer out a new deal with him, but it wouldn’t be shocking to see him sign a multi-year deal along the lines of the one Darren Raddysh signed in 2022 (2 years, $762,500 AAV).
Conor Geekie
52 games, 8 goals, 4 assists, 12:20 TOI
Conor Geekie’s first year in the NHL had a little bit of everything. A surprise start of the season on the roster, solid play over the first few months, a bit of a lull, an assignment to the AHL, domination in the AHL, and a triumphant return to the NHL. Along the way, we saw glimpses of Geekie’s ability, and the makings of a player that could develop into a strong, two-way center that can score, and defend.
It was also apparent that he needs to build up his strength a little more as there were times he was pushed off the puck by defensemen. His skating could use a little bit of work, but is already useful at the NHL-level. One other development that would be nice to see is if he is greedier with the puck. There was a little too much deferring to his teammates when he was with the Lightning. During his 24-game stretch with the Crunch, he played with a lot more assertiveness. He has the talent to be the best player on the ice at times, and he needs to play with that confidence.
With a year of experience under his belt, he should be better next season. At this point, he’s penciled in for a spot on the third line, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see him move up and down the line-up next season.
Gage Goncalves
60 games, 8 goals, 12 assists, 12:48
Along the same lines as Geekie, it took a brief stop in Syracuse for Goncalves to get his mojo back. After an okay, but not inspiring, first stint with the Lightning this season, he came back and put up 14 points over his last 27 games following a February recall. He then capped it off by being one of the Bolts’ best players in their brief playoff run against the Panthers, as he added 4 points in 5 games.
In the grand scheme of things, a 20-point season doesn’t sound overly impressive, but it’s the most productive season a Lightning rookie forward has put up since Mathieu Joseph recorded 26 points in 70 games back in 2018-19.
The Portuguese Pistol showed that he has the puck skills to be a top-six forward for the Lightning, but will likely be a part of the third line with Geekie to start things off next season. Another restricted free agent with arbitration rights, he should be in line for a nice little raise over his current $775,000 cap hit. The folks over at Evolving Hockey project his next deal to be 2 years with an AAV of about $1.5 million.
If nothing else in the 2024-25 season, the Lightning appear to have found two players in their system that can contribute regularly at the NHL level for the next couple of years. In theory, that should make Mr. BriseBois’ summer a little easier. A Conor Geekie-Nick Paul-Gage Goncalves third line could be a pretty intriguing trio for Coach Cooper to deploy on a nightly basis. There is some offensive potential there, along with reliable defensive play, and they would come at a fairly reasonable cost.
One of the most important aspects of being able to develop prospects that contribute at the NHL level is the cost savings. Part of what made the Lightning so dangerous during their Stanley Cup runs is that they had a lot of young players contributing at the minimum, or close to salary level. It gives the general manager room to build the roster and adapt as the season progresses. If the Lightning can roll a third line out on the ice that totals around $6 million in cap hits, that allows Mr. BriseBois to spend his money elsewhere.
While it’s unlikely any of these prospects are going to develop into future hall of famers, they can provide valuable depth on the roster as the Lightning’s Golden Generation continues their fight for one more Stanley Cup. Hopefully, we’ll see a couple of more players make the leap next season (our money is on Duke and Crozier) to keep the Bolts competitive for the next generation.
