The Lightning enter the new year in a much different position than this time last season.
While their position in the standings is unchanged, occupying one of the Eastern Conference’s two wild-card spots, they’re playing much better hockey as a whole.
The Lightning entered Tuesday’s heavy slate of New Year’s Eve games in the first wild-card position, with 42 points, but are just six points back of first-place Florida despite playing the fewest games in the conference. The Lightning have played four fewer games than the Panthers, and both teams were idle on Tuesday.
At the beginning of 2024, the Lightning weren’t in a good place, underachieving and clinging to a playoff spot. They needed to be one of the best teams in the league in the second half of the season to seal their playoff fortune.
Here are three numbers that begin to tell the difference a year makes (all stats entering Tuesday):
Plus-37 goal differential
Even after a three-goal loss Sunday to Montreal, the Lightning’s goal differential is tied with Washington for best in the Eastern Conference and second best in the league to Winnipeg (plus-49).
A positive goal differential doesn’t always mean you’re getting points — the Bruins are minus-14 and in third place in the Atlantic — but it’s often a good sign that you are. For the Lightning, it has meant that they’ve won big in a lot of games and mostly avoided being blown out. They have scored eight goals four times this season and won those games by an average of 5.25 goals.
With the best scoring offense in the league (3.94 goals per game), the Lightning have become a much better offensive team (3.30 goals per game on Jan. 1 last season) without Steven Stamkos and a less productive power-play unit.
Last season, the Lightning were minus-6 on Jan. 1
1.37 5-on-5 for/against
This number speaks to the Lightning’s offseason goal of getting better in 5-on-5 play, primarily focusing on allowing fewer goals at even strength. Any number over one means a team is scoring more than allowing in 5-on-5. The Lightning’s 5-on-5 for/against is best in the Eastern Conference and second best in the league to Los Angeles’ 1.41.
This time last season, the Lightning were allowing far more goals than they scored in 5-on-5 play, shown by their 0.82 for/against on Jan. 1.
And the Lightning have made remarkable progress in their 5-on-5 defense, allowing just 1.41 goals per game in 5-on-5 play this season. That’s compared to 3.02 allowed a game in 5-on-5 this time last season.
Keep in mind, the Lightning ended 2023-24 allowing 2.31 goals a game in 5-on-5, so they got much better in the second half but still allowed the fifth-most goals in 5-on-5 in the league.
.909 team save percentage
The backbone of every successful team is its goaltending, and even though the Lightning have limited scoring chances and cut down on turnovers, there are going to be pivotal times when your goaltender bails you out.
So in a lot of ways, the volume of saves is less important than the point in the game when big saves are made. Both Andrei Vasilevskiy and Jonas Johansson have come through in the clutch to keep games close.
Statistically, the Lightning’ .909 goaltending save percentage is better than last season’s .894 at on Jan. 1.
Vasilevskiy, who missed the first six weeks of last season recovering from back surgery, was still finding his way as the calendar flipped. That being said, his .914 save percentage through 27 games this season is markedly better than .900 on Jan. 1, 2024. Vasilevskiy also owns a .924 save percentage in 5-on-5, fifth best in the league among goaltenders with at least 20 games.
Johansson’s 3.36 goals-per-game average isn’t great, but take out a few bad periods when the game got away from him and he has been locked in given his sporadic playing time. He has given the Lightning points in five of his seven starts, ultimately the most important thing for a backup.
