Agent's Take: Why Terry McLaurin's contract dispute with the Commanders is more complicated than you think

McLaurin is the team's No. 1 WR. Will he get paid like one?

Washington Commanders head coach Dan Quinn has taken an enlightened view about wide receiver Terry McLaurin's contract dispute with the Washington Commanders. "Sometimes football and business intersect and this is one of those times," Quinn said when McLaurin missed the Commanders' mandatory three-day minicamp held June 10 through June 12.

McLaurin subjected himself to a $104,768 fine by skipping the mandatory minicamp. He also didn't attend most of Washington's voluntary offseason workouts because of the lack of a new contract.

McLaurin arguably had the best season of his six-year NFL career in 2024. He caught 82 passes for 1,096 yards with a career-high 13 touchdowns. McLaurin had 14 receptions, 227 receiving yards and three touchdown catches in Washington's three playoff games. He earned All-Pro honors (second team by the Associated Press) for the first time and was named to his second Pro Bowl (original ballot on each occasion) last season.

The 2024 season was the first time McLaurin played with a quality quarterback. Despite this, McLaurin has had five consecutive 1,000-yard receiving seasons.

Jayden Daniels, the reigning NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, appears to be the long-term quarterback solution for the Commanders. During McLaurin's six seasons in Washington, 10 other quarterback besides Daniels started games. The rotating cast of quarterbacks included Kyle Allen, Case Keenum, Taylor Heinicke and Sam Howell. 

McLaurin is in the final year of a three-year, $69.6 million contract extension averaging $23.2 million per year signed at the end of June in 2022. Salary escalators and incentives tied to being selected to the Pro Bowl on the original ballot made the deal worth up to $70.6 million. McLaurin is making $19.65 million in 2025 on a $25.5 million salary cap number.

On the surface, it shouldn't be that hard for McLaurin and the Commanders to reach an agreement since the wide receiver market is well-defined. Age is surely an important consideration for the Commanders. McLaurin played his first NFL season in 2019 as a 24-year-old rookie. He turns 30 on Sept. 15.

The NFL's highest-paid wide receiver who signed while on the verge of or after turning 30 is Tyreek Hill. The Miami Dolphins renegotiated the remaining three years of Hill's contract last August without adding any new years. He is making $90 million over the three years where $54 million was fully guaranteed at signing.

One older wide receiver who isn't relevant to the negotiations is Mike Evans, who will be 32 in August. Evans signed a contract in March 2024 to remain with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers that isn't as good as originally advertised. The three-time original ballot Pro Bowler's deal was initially reported as $52 million for two years averaging $26 million per year. That's the maximum value of the contract if all $11 million of the incentives and salary escalators were earned, which isn't going to happen.

The base value is $41 million over two years to average $20.5 million per year. There are $35 million of guarantees where $29 million was fully guaranteed at signing. The $20.5 million per year base value of the deal would be a pay cut for McLaurin given the base value of his current contract is $23.2 million per year.

Getting a deal done is going to require the Commanders acknowledging that McLaurin is a No. 1 wide receiver and should be paid accordingly. McLaurin is the primary receiving threat on the Commanders. He led the Commanders with 117 targets in 2024. 

The Commanders don't have another wide receiver who can fill McLaurin's shoes. Deebo Samuel, who was acquired from the San Francisco 49ers in March for a 2025 fifth-round pick, hasn't been extremely productive since the 2021 season when he earned first-team All-Pro honors. Just like McLaurin, 2025 is a contract year for Samuel.

Tee Higgins sets the market for No. 2 wide receivers. After being designated as a franchise player by the Cincinnati Bengals for a second straight year, Higgins signed a four-year, $115 million contract averaging $28.75 million per year in March. The deal is worth up to $121.8 million through incentives. Higgins eclipsed the three-year, $84.75 million extension averaging $28.25 million per year Jaylen Waddle received from the Dolphins during the 2024 offseason to set the pay scale for number two wide receivers.

Ja'Marr Chase sets the bar for wide receiver compensation. He became the league's highest-paid non-quarterback with the four-year, $161 million extension averaging $40.25 million per year he signed at the same time Higgins, his Bengals teammate, took pay for No. 2 wideouts to new heights. Chase's deal has $109.8 million of guarantees where $73.9 million was fully guaranteed at signing.

There's a pretty significant gap between Chase and the rest of the wide receiver market. Justin Jefferson was the previous wide receiver standard. The Minnesota Vikings gave Jefferson a four-year, $140 million extension averaging $35 million per year in June 2024. Jefferson's contract has $110 million in guarantees, of which $88.743 million was fully guaranteed at signing. McLaurin expecting some sort of trickle down effect from Chase's contract where he bridges this gap will likely be a deal breaker for the Commanders.

CeeDee Lamb is third in the wide receiver salary hierarchy. He signed a four-year, $136 million extension averaging $34 million per year with the Dallas Cowboys in August during the latter part of the preseason. There are $100 million in guarantees, of which $67 million was fully guaranteed at signing. At the time, both marks were the second most ever in a wide receiver contract.

A potentially important data point to McLaurin is the four-year extension averaging nearly $33 million per year DK Metcalf received from the Pittsburgh Steelers in connection with his March trade from the Seattle Seahawks shortly before Chase signed. Metcalf is a part of the 2019 draft class, just like McLaurin. His contract is slightly backloaded. The first three new years average just under $32.175 million per year since there is $35.5 million in 2029, the last year of Metcalf's contract.

The deal has $80 million in guarantees where $60 million was fully guaranteed at signing. The last $20 million of guarantees in 2027 are for injury only. Metcalf is only the third veteran player for the Steelers to ever receive fully guaranteed money in the second contract year joining edge rusher T.J. Watt and safety Minkah Fitzpatrick, who was just traded to the Dolphins. The Steelers didn't start giving traditional salary guarantees in veteran contracts until 2021 with Watt.

Metcalf is about two years younger than McLaurin. He will be 28 in December. Although McLaurin has been more productive than Metcalf of late, Metcalf has rare traits. Metcalf is a physical freak of nature for a wide receiver. He is listed at 6-foot-4, weighs 229 pounds and has great speed.

The Commanders designating McLaurin as a franchise player in 2026 if he plays out his contract won't be cheap. It will cost $30.2 million at a minimum with the way the 120% of prior year's salary provisions work with franchise tags. The 20% increase is primarily based on a player's salary cap number from the previous year. McLaurin's franchise tag would be $30.45 million if he is named to the 2025 Pro Bowl on the original ballot because his $250,000 Pro Bowl incentive would be classified as likely to be earned and added in after calculating the increase. Expect McLaurin's camp to factor the franchise tag amount into their negotiation equation.

One way to try to help resolve the stalemate between McLaurin and the Commanders could be to look at the contracts of the six wide receivers named first- or second-team All-Pro last season. Chase and Jefferson, as well as Amon-Ra St. Brown, were on the first team. Brown signed a four-year, $120.01 million extension averaging $30,002,500 per year with the Detroit Lions in April 2024. The deal has $77 million in guarantees, of which $34.666 million was fully guaranteed at signing.

A.J. Brown joined Lamb and McLaurin as the second-team wide receivers. He received a three-year, $96 million extension averaging $32 million per year from the Philadelphia Eagles in April 2024. Brown's contract has $84 million in guarantees, where $51 million was fully guaranteed at signing.

Collectively, these six wide receivers are signed to extensions with $722.61 million of new money for 22 new contract years to average $32,845,909 per year. The oldest of these wide receivers at signing, excluding McLaurin, was Brown. He turned 27 a couple of months after he got his deal. The other four were either 25 or close to being 25 when they signed.

Another data point that could be useful is adjusting McLaurin's existing contract for salary cap inflation. The salary cap has increased by 34.1% since McLaurin signed in 2022. His deal is a little less than $31.125 million per year when factoring in salary cap growth.

The Commanders are practically in the same boat as the Houston Texans. Both teams had much better than expected records after finding a cost-effective answer at quarterback with the second overall pick in the NFL Draft.

Feeling that their window to make a championship push was open after surprisingly making the playoffs with C.J. Stroud, who was named 2023's NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, the Texans started upgrading the talent on the roster during the 2024 offseason. The Commanders have been doing same this offseason. To preserve roster flexibility, the Texans didn't sign players to more than three-year deals or three-year extensions and occasionally paid on the higher end of fair. The Texans, like the Commanders, aren't dealing with a high-priced quarterback right now. McLaurin could be looking for a longer term than the Commanders are comfortable with since his next contract should be his last big deal given his age.

Taking everything into consideration, it's hard to envision a realistic scenario where McLaurin accepts less than Brandon Aiyuk's $30 million per year in an extension even though there is an age difference between the two. Aiyuk signed a four-year, $120 million extension with the 49ers containing $76 million in guarantees. Out of the $76 million, $45 million was fully guaranteed. Aiyuk was 26 when he signed.

Quinn might start singing a different tune about McLaurin if the contract impasse can't be broken by the time the Commanders veterans report to training camp on July 22. It would be interesting to see whether McLaurin would be willing to incur a mandatory $50,000 fine for each day of training camp missed in a holdout or stage a hold in where he reported to training camp to avoid this fine but didn't practice until there is a resolution with his contract. A contract dispute lasting until the start of the regular season is approaching could begin to impact Washington's ability to sustain or build upon last season's surprising success that resulted in an NFC Championship game appearance.