Alex Ovechkin Can Reach 1,000 Goals if He Returns for 2027-28 Season

   

The Washington Capitals and their fans have dealt with a whirlwind of rumors this offseason surrounding the status of superstar winger Alex Ovechkin. Currently preparing for his 21st NHL season, many have suggested it could be the final ride for the Russian star based on a comment from Ovechkin’s wife, Nastasiya, suggesting the family could move back to Russia after the 2025-26 season. Recently, Ovechkin spoke to the media to clear up any confusion regarding his plans, while suggesting the world “wait and see” what happens following the 2025-26 NHL season and beyond.

Alex Ovechkin Wins Mark Messier NHL Leadership Award for 2024-25 Season -  The Hockey Writers - Washington Capitals - NHL News, Analysis & More

Ovechkin Speaks on Future Playing Plans 

The 39-year-old forward dismissed speculation that his retirement from hockey is imminent. “My wife never confirmed anything,” Ovechkin confirmed via RG Media’s Daria Tuboltseva at the NHL vs. Kontinental Hockey League (KHL) Match of the Year charity game this week. “She said we might play in Russia. Anything is possible.”

“She said maybe we’ll come and play in Russia,” the reigning Mark Messier NHL Leadership Award winner said. “But it was just a ‘maybe’. No one mentioned a specific date. It’s all nonsense that you guys are twisting, and putting Nastasiya in a position where it sounds like she said I’m playing my last NHL season. Let’s just wait and see!” 

Ovechkin has one more season at $9.5 million under the five-year, $47.5 million contract signed in 2021. The deal includes a no-movement clause and a 10-team no-trade list. Ovechkin took a slight pay decrease from $9.53 million to $9.5 million on his third contract with Washington. The deal represented an 11.6% share of the Capitals’ cap space when it was agreed to several seasons ago.

Ovechkin’s Quest for 1,000 NHL Goals

Entering the 2025-26 season, Ovechkin has scored the most regular-season goals in history (897) after surpassing Wayne Gretzky‘s record of 895 goals late in 2024-25. This leaves him 103 goals shy of the monumental mark of 1,000 career tallies. Looking at his most recent production, Ovechkin has averaged nearly 42 goals per season since the start of the 2021-22 season. 

 
NHL Season Ovechkin Goals Scored  Goals Per Game (G/PG) Average
2024-25 (65 Games Played) 44 0.676
2023-24 (79 GP) 31 0.392
2022-23 (73 GP) 42 0.575
2021-22 (77 GP) 50 0.649
2020-21* (45 GP) 24*  0.533*
2019-20 (68 GP) 48 0.705
2018-19 (81 GP) 51 0.629
2017-18 (82 GP) 49 0.597
Totals (570 GP) 339 0.594
*56-game season due to the COVID-19 pandemic    

Working under the assumption that Ovechkin re-signs in Washington after the 2025-26 season and skates in all 82 games for the Capitals in 2026-27 (and beyond), it becomes a simple math problem to determine if/when the generational scorer will break the 1,000-goal barrier.

As seen above, Ovechkin has averaged over 40 goals per season since the 2017-18 season, with one outlier – the shortened 2020-21 season, which featured 56 games due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Ovechkin scored 24 goals in 45 games, which still represented a 0.53 goals per game (G/PG) average in the truncated campaign. 

With the projection that Ovechkin scores around the same number of goals in 2025-26, followed by a slight dip the following season, the winger should position himself to break the 1,000-goals barrier during the 2027-28 season, at which he’ll be skating at 42 years old. 

NHL Season (Projection) Ovechkin Goals (Projected) G/PG  Average (82 GP)
2025-26 45 0.548
2026-27 35 0.426
2027-28 23 (needed to reach 1,000) 0.280
Totals  1,000 0.51

While there is no guarantee that Ovechkin skates in the NHL past this season, there is a viable avenue for the all-time leading scorer to become the first NHL player with a four-digit career goal total. The 2025-26 season will likely go a very long way toward determining the viability of Ovechkin’s quest for 1,000 NHL goals. If the generational scorer can score at least 40 goals this season, he will put himself on track towards a once-unthinkable career goal total in the NHL.