The Philadelphia Eagles got far more than what they were hoping for when they signed RB Saquon Barkley in free agency just over a year ago.
After producing one of the best seasons we have ever seen from a running back in NFL history, one analyst believes Barkley is in danger of becoming a regression candidate in 2025.
Is Eagles RB Saquon Barkley Due for Regression in Multiple Metrics in 2025?
PFF NFL Analyst Nathan Jahnke heaped praise on Saquon Barkley for his outstanding 2024 NFL season, but did mention he sees some areas where the veteran back could see some regression in year two with the Eagles.
Jahnke wrote, “Barkley is a talented running back who dominated fantasy leagues last season with an unsustainably high rate of long touchdown runs. He will continue to be a great back who sees elite volume, which alone makes him a top-10 running back, but it will be hard to remain elite due to likely touchdown regression.”
Barkley’s 13 rushing touchdowns were a career high and plays alongside Jalen Hurts — who has scored double-digit rushing touchdowns four straight years. Touchdown regression for any player who scores more than 10 is usually a regression candidate in that department, but Barkley does have some factors working against him to backup that line of thinking.
What Are the Expectations for Saquon Barkley in 2025 Coming Off a 2,000 Yard Rushing Season?
When a player rushes for over 2,000 yards in a season, it is hard to project for him to improve upon that mark. That includes one as talented as Saquon. If Barkley were to best his yardage output from last year then he likely would have to duplicate some of the historic explosive run rates in 2025.
Jahnke added, “Barkley scored 60-plus-yard touchdown runs at a rate that has never been seen in the history of the NFL. Barkley accomplished this seven times, including the playoffs, which is the most in NFL history in a season. There is a tie for second between Adrian Peterson in 2012 and Jim Brown in 1963, at four each. Barkley has 11 60-plus-yard touchdown runs in his NFL career, which ranks second behind Adrian Peterson’s 15 and ahead of Derrick Henry (9), Barry Sanders (8) and Chris Johnson (8). He had four such runs earlier in his career, so his 11 all-time ranks second to Peterson’s 15.”
Jahnke is simply pointing how truly unique Barkley’s 2024 season was in direct comparison to other great single-season campaigns.
This is why Jahnke continued to harp on Barkley’s plethora of long touchdown runs being an outlier by writing, “Long touchdowns aren’t very consistent from one year to the next, and those 60-plus-yard touchdowns, in particular, should regress substantially. He is still in a position to break more long runs than any other running back, but it’s implausible he can continue at the same rate.”
It would be doing the offensive line a disservice if they didn’t receive some the credit for Barkley’s success, which was an pivotal part for his 2,005 rushing yards on the season.
Jahnke also touched on how Barkley was running behind a great offensive line by writing, “A large part of Barkley’s success has been the offensive line, which ranked fourth in team run-blocking grade last season. The tackles are largely to thank, as Jordan Mailata had one of the best run-blocking seasons in PFF’s history last year at left tackle. Lane Johnson has played for over a decade and just posted his highest overall grade at 34 years old. Left guard Landon Dickerson made substantial progress in his fourth season, while Cam Jurgens wasn’t Jason Kelce but still graded fine in run blocking in his first season at center.”
Ultimately, Barkley is well-positioned to post another great season as the leading ball carrier of a dynamic rushing attack. Regression may happen, but betting against Barkley isn’t something I’m willing to do either.
