While most of the National League is still on the border of the playoff picture, the Dodgers have no such ambiguity. They’re in their typical position of preparing to buy.
On paper, the team’s biggest question appears to be the roster depth. The Dodgers haven’t gotten much production out of the bottom third of the lineup. They have seven starting pitchers on the injured list at the moment, leading them to go into the All-Star Break with a four-man rotation that includes three rookies. They felt the effects in the weeks leading up to the Break. They’ve taken just four of 12 games this month and have a 20-18 record since the beginning of June.
Despite their recent slump, the Dodgers have one of the more comfortable divisional cushions in the majors. They’re seven games clear of the Diamondbacks and Padres in the NL West. They remain very likely to win the division. Whether they’ll finish in the National League’s top two and secure a first-round bye is more of a question. L.A. is well back of the Phillies for the #1 seed and only holds a one-game edge on the Central-leading Brewers.
The division lead allows the front office to be flexible in which players they target before July 30. President of baseball operations Andrew Friedman indicated this week that the Dodgers will focus most of their attention at the top of the trade market. “For us, I don’t think our mentality is different than it’s been in previous years in that we feel we have a really good team and to the extent that we can add really good players we’re going to be aggressive to do so,” Friedman said (link via Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register). “What appears to be a marginal upgrade is not something we’re going to spend a lot of time on. That doesn’t mean something is not going to happen along those lines but that’s not where our energy and focus will be.”
With very little danger of missing the playoffs, the Dodgers can primarily concern themselves with how the roster will look in October. They anticipate having a lot of impact players back by then. Los Angeles isn’t expecting a long-term absence for Tyler Glasnow. Mookie Betts, Max Muncy and Yoshinobu Yamamoto could be back in August. Clayton Kershaw is building up in the minors as he completes his rehab from last year’s shoulder surgery.
Walker Buehler and Bobby Miller once looked like obvious pieces of the October staff. That’s questionable now. Buehler was rocked over eight starts in his return from a second Tommy John procedure. He has been on the injured list for a month with a hip issue. Miller lost a couple months to a shoulder problem and didn’t look like himself upon returning. The Dodgers optioned him to Triple-A late last week. Dustin May won’t be able to contribute down the stretch after unexpectedly requiring throat surgery in a scary situation.
Glasnow, Yamamoto, Kershaw and Gavin Stone could still comprise a solid playoff rotation. There’s downside with that entire group, though. Yamamoto is rehabbing a rotator cuff strain. Glasnow should easily eclipse his previous career high in innings. Kershaw is a 36-year-old coming off shoulder surgery. This is the first time Stone is getting extended run out of the rotation.
There’s not a ton of value for the Dodgers in acquiring a back-end arm to take a handful of starts in August and September. Like every team, Los Angeles would benefit from adding another high-end starter whom the team would feel comfortable taking the ball in October.
The Dodgers reportedly already made an offer to the White Sox for Garrett Crochet that was turned down. They’ll presumably have continued interest in the AL strikeout leader, who’d certainly qualify as the kind of impact talent to which Friedman alluded. Teams will have questions about how well Crochet will hold up given his innings count, but he’s pitching like an ace at the moment. Jack Flaherty and Yusei Kikuchi look like the top rental starters who’ll be on the market.
Plunkett writes that Friedman downplayed the urgency to add at specific positions on the other side of the ball. The Dodgers haven’t gotten much out of Gavin Lux at second base. They’ve had limited production in both left and center field. Third base has been an issue since Muncy went down. Andy Pages has stabilized the corner outfield spot opposite Teoscar Hernández, but the Dodgers are relying on James Outman in center field after he struggled early in the season.
Getting Betts back in the fold would go a long way toward addressing those problems. He could slide to second base with Miguel Rojas handling shortstop, pushing Lux to the bench. Betts could obviously handle the outfield if need be. As with the rotation, it’s easy enough to argue for an upgrade, but it’s also not clear how many significant players are on the market. The middle infield group looks very thin. Luis Robert Jr. is the crown of the center field class. The White Sox would need a massive haul to deal him thanks to his three years of remaining club control.
