The Play-In Tournament meant a lot to the Golden State Warriors -- and to the Miami Heat.
The Warriors never wanted to be in the Play-In bracket, of course, but now that they passed through the waters the outcome is not all that bad. They will face the inexperienced Houston Rockets in the first round of the Western Conference playoffs, then potentially take on either the Los Angeles Lakers or Minnesota Timberwolves -- two teams they match up with reasonably well.
Yet the Play-In Tournament could have spelled doom for the Warriors. They were 0-3 in the Play-In coming into Tuesday's showdown with the Memphis Grizzlies, and at points during that hard-fought instant classic the possibility of losing loomed wide beneath their feet. That would have sent them spiraling to a Friday night winner-goes-home game against another West foe; lose that game and the Warriors would be heading home while the playoffs began without them.
The reason they did not lose was that Jimmy Butler III rose to the occasion, as he so often does, scoring 38 points to go along with Steph Curry's 37 to propel the Warriors to a 121-116 win and into the playoff field proper. Without such an heroic performance, however, a fascinating "what if" scenario could have played out.
The Warriors could have kept their first-round pick
As a part of the trade package for Butler, the Warriors committed to send the Miami Heat their 2025 first-round pick -- if it landed outside of the Top 10. That may have seemed like a meaningless distinction, but at the time of the trade the Warriors were stuck at .500 and if they didn't turn things around could have very well been a lottery team. If Kyrie Irving didn't get hurt, the Phoenix Suns didn't implode and someone made a run in the East, the Warriors could have made it into the 10th slot.
That obviously didn't happen - the Mavericks and Suns did fade down the stretch and the Warriors surged to 48 wins. Yet even so, the possibility remained that the Warriors could lose both Play-In games, land in the lottery, and then leap into the Top 4. The 14th-place team in the lottery standings will have a 2.4 percent chance at the Top 4 and a 0.5 percent chance at the No. 1 pick. Low, but real, odds that the Warriors could have kept their pick.
Miami will now officially get the Warriors' pick
By winning and locking in their status as a playoff team, their pick is now guaranteed to convey to the Miami Heat this season. The Warriors' 48-34 record was equal to the Memphis Grizzlies and the Milwaukee Bucks, meaning a coin flip in a few weeks will decide whether the pick falls at No. 18, 19 or 20.
This matters to the Heat, who do get the pick this year but lose the upside of the pick to be unprotected in 2027. It matters to the Warriors, who are now free to trade their 2026 and 2028 first-round picks after the NBA Draft. And it matters to the handful of teams around them in the draft order, as a Warriors flameout in the Play-In Tournament would have pushed everyone else below them back a slot.
The Heat still have some intrigue surrounding them for the 2025 NBA Draft, as their pick is also lottery-protected and they are playing the Atlanta Hawks on Friday Night in the Eastern Conference Play-In finale. Win, and they send a first to the Oklahoma City Thunder -- and will owe a protected first to the Charlotte Hornets in 2027. If they lose, however, they keep this year's pick -- and their responsibility to the Thunder rolls over into next year, pushing back the pick they owe to Charlotte, which is completely unprotected in 2028.
The Play-In Tournament meant a lot to the draft fortunes of both the Warriors and the Heat -- and now one more piece of the Jimmy Butler trade has been finalized.
