The NFL Draft is one of my favorite events of the NFL year. It's a chance for every team to add a new crop of players that their fans can get excited about. Regardless of whether you do a lot of research before the draft or check out the scouting reports and highlight reels of the players your favorite team drafts, it's easy to get excited about almost any player your team takes. Unfortunately, we know that not all these players will work out, and the further into the draft you go, the less likely it is that a player will stick in the NFL.
With those facts in mind, I set out to do a series of pieces in July (while we're waiting for training camp to roll around) that would look at the specific hit rates for players at each position that the Kansas City Chiefs drafted, specifically looking at recent history for players at those positions taken in the same range that KC drafted them.
Recent draft history shows Ashton Gillotte is far from a sure thing to stick in the NFL.
I've already looked at offensive tackles taken near the end of the first round to get a feel for what Josh Simmons' chances are. I was also very surprised by the results for defensive tackles drafted around where KC took Omarr Norman-Lott.
Today it's time to look at edge players drafted around where the Chiefs took Louisville's Ashton Gillotte. Personally, I love the Gillotte pick. I think his high motor/effort will serve him well, and I trust Steve Spagnuolo and his staff to get the best out of him. I actually think he could prove to be a pretty similar player to George Karlaftis. However, most teams that draft a pass rusher in this range have high hopes for them, and as you'll see, the results have been mixed.
For this study, I looked at 10 recent draft classes from 2014–2023. I left out 2024 because I think it's too early to evaluate whether players from that class are a hit or a miss. So, 2014–2023 gives us the most recent 10-year period where we can really see how players have done. Since Gillotte was drafted at the start of the third round at pick number 66, I decided to look at edge players drafted in those drafts between picks 56–76. That gives us a 21-pick range that includes the ten picks before and after Gillotte was drafted.
I found 26 edge players drafted in that range over those 10 years. There is always a little gray area when looking at outside linebackers, 4-3 defensive ends, and 3-4 defensive ends and trying to determine who should be grouped under the umbrella of "edge" players. I did my best to make an accurate call on which draft picks should count for this study, but if you would argue someone should/should not have been included, there is room for discussion there.
Here are the 26 players drafted between picks 56–76 in the 2014–2023 draft classes that I counted as edge players:
2014:
- Kony Ealy - Carolina Panthers - pick 60
- Scott Crichton - Minnesota Vikings - pick 72
2015:
- Markus Golden - Arizona Cardinals - pick 58
- Randy Gregory - Dallas Cowboys - pick 60
- Frank Clark - Seattle Seahawks - pick 63
- Owamagbe Odighizuwa - New York Giants - pick 74
2016:
- Carl Nassib - Cleveland Browns - pick 65
- Yannick Ngakoue - Jacksonville Jaguars - pick 69
- Bronson Kaufusi - Baltimore Ravens - pick 70
- Shilique Calhoun - Oakland Raiders - pick 75
2017:
- Tanoh Kpassagnon - Kansas City Chiefs - pick 59
- Dawuane Smoot - Jacksonville Jaguars - pick 68
- Jordan Willis - Cincinnati Bengals - pick 73
2018:
- Tyquan Lewis - Indianappolis Colts - pick 64
- Lorenzo Carter - New York Giants - pick 66
- Chad Thomas - Cleveland Browns - pick 67
2019:
- Zach Allen - Arizona Cardinals - pick 65
- Jachai Polite - New York Jets - pick 68
2020:
- Joshua Uche - New England Patriots - pick 60
- Julian Okwara - Detroit Lions - pick 67
2021:
- Boogie Basham - Buffalo Bills - pick 61
- Joseph Ossai - Cincinnati Bengals - pick 68
2022:
- Saw Williams - Dallas Cowboys - pick 56
- Drake Jackson - San Francisco 49ers - pick 61
- Nik Bonitto - Denver Broncos - pick 64
2023:
- Zach Harrison - Atlanta Falcons - pick 75
This is where things got especially tricky. With the Simmons and Norman-Lott pieces, the distinction between hits and busts was relatively clear. I found dividing up this group of edge players a lot more difficult.
In the end, I tried to put an even number of the "on the fence" players on each side so as not to slant the results to one side or the other. Some of the deciding factors included starts, stats, and second contracts, with some added weight on whether the team that drafted them saw any/most of those benefits.
For example, Carl Nassib ended up on my bust list because the Browns cut ties with him after just two seasons with little impact. He ended up having a long enough NFL career that I would have counted him as a hit had more of it been for the team that drafted him. Lorenzo Carter, on the other hand, made the hit list because he made over 30 starts for the team that drafted him and has over 20 career sacks. Ultimately, you could probably argue they've had similar overall careers.
Former Chief Tanoh Kpassagnon made the hit list despite not being a big-impact player because he started a lot of games for the Chiefs and then earned a second contract with the Saints. When the NFL average hit rate for this range of the draft is between 20–30 percent, that's a solid return on investment. There are also still a few young players like Sam Williams and Zach Harrison that I think could still go either way, so I put one on each list.
So here is the list of my hits/busts for these 26 players.
Defensive End Draft Busts (57.7%)
- Kony Ealy
- Scott Crichton
- Randy Gregory
- Owamagbe Owighizuwa
- Carl Nassib
- Bronson Kaufusi
- Shilique Calhoun
- Jordan Willis
- Chad Thomas
- Jachai Polite
- Julian Okwara
- Boogie Basham
- Joseph Ossai
- Drake Jackson
- Zach Harrison
Defensive End Draft Hits (42.3%)
- Markus Golden
- Frank Clark
- Yannick Ngakoue
- Tanoh Kpassagnon
- Dawuane Smoot
- Tyquan Lewis
- Lorenzo Carter
- Zach Allen
- Joshua Uche
- Sam Williams
- Nik Bonitto
Again, if you want to argue a player or two should move from one list to another, that's fine. I still think it's clear that we have now moved into a higher-risk zone than with the late-round offensive tackles that were at 66.7 percent and the defensive tackles that were at 77.8 percent. We're now looking at a hit rate below 50 percent. That means history says it's more likely that Ashton Gillotte will not be a successful NFL player for the Chiefs.
I will point out that 42.3 percent is still much better than the overall hit rate at this part of the draft, which is closer to 30 percent. So it's not like the Chiefs made a risky pick by taking an edge player at this point in the draft. It still hits above the NFL average; it's just far enough into the draft that overall hit rates start to become less and less likely.
So what do you think, Chiefs fans? If you're like me and really liked the pick of Gillotte, do you believe he'll be one of the minority that carves out a successful NFL career, or do you think his chances are less than 50 percent, as history suggests? I'd love to read your thoughts in the comments below.
