So far I’ve seen Cubs fans on the fence about this blockbuster trade idea, others flat out saying no, while another segment of the fan base is hungry for a superstar and are saying it’s a no-brainer. I’ve also seen fans saying it would be the worst decision ever. I think I like it, but there’s a huge caveat because of course there has to be.
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MLB senior writer Anthony Castrovince was on MLB Network on Tuesday to discuss some blockbuster deals and the first involved the Cubs and the Toronto Blue Jays. So yeah, you know that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is part of the trade proposal, but Castrovince also includes veteran starting pitcher Kevin Gausman.
What would the Blue Jays get in return? Cody Bellinger, Michael Busch and Cade Horton, the Cubs’ number one pitching prospect.
First, before you freak out, this is purely a hypothetical. It’s entertainment. Chill. Sure, Vlad Jr. could end up being available via trade this offseason, but as of now there are zero indications that the Blue Jays are even considering moving their 25-year-old star.
That doesn’t mean we can’t have some fun discussions about the potential of a trade happening.
Number one, and it’s probably dead on arrival, but the only way I would be OK with this trade idea is if we know the Cubs are signing Guerrero Jr. to a contract extension. Under no circumstances am I giving this a thumbs up if there’s any chance that Vlad Jr. tests free agency following the 2025 season.
And that’s a real problem here. The majority of great players will go to free agency no matter what, so maybe if the Cubs were 100% in on offering Vlad Jr. a contract extension, who’s to say that he would even agree? Yet, the bigger question is will the Cubs actually pay up for that massive extension? Do you confidence that this front office and this ownership will finally commit to a large extension after seeing them sit out on top free agents year after year?
So yeah, giving up Cade Horton, five more years of cheap control of Michael Busch and a solid Cody Bellinger (even at his salary) would be tough in my opinion, but I’d do it IF Cubs ownership is serious about an extension for Vladimir Guerrero Jr
Oh and let’s not forget Kevin Gausman. The 33-year-old has two years left on his five-year, $110 million contract. In 2024, the righty made 31 starts, recorded a 3.83 ERA in 181 innings and while the strikeouts did go down, he’s proven to be a reliable workhorse who takes the ball every fifth day.
But the big prize is obviously Vlad Jr. Even during his relatively down 2023 season, the first baseman hit 26 home runs, slashed .264/.345/.444, and had a 118 wRC+ in 156 games. He was a beast in 2024, with a 165 wRC+, sixth-best among all qualified hitters.
Yeah, in this scenario the Cubs lose versatility with Busch and Bellinger departing, but the Cubs finally get some much-needed thump in the middle of their lineup. It would also mean the Cubs may depend on their other prospects more than anticipated following the 2024 season. Yet, signs of that happening could already be seen following some key roster cuts so far this offseason.
I think the big factor here, besides a Vlad Jr. contract extension, is how the Cubs feel about Horton’s health. If there’s any doubt about his arm, then I bet they’d definitely be more inclined to move him in a trade now than a year ago.
Here’s the segment from MLB Network and the discussion by Castrovince regarding his trade idea between the Cubs and Blue Jays.
