The Broncos have looked in vain for years for their next franchise quarterback after Peyton Manning’s retirement. Bo Nix could be the man to fill the role.
![Bo Nix Could Finally End Denver Broncos' Post-Peyton Manning Quarterback Void - Athlon Sports]()
Paxton Lynch. Trevor Siemian. Brock Osweiler. Chad Kelly. Case Keenum. Brandon Allen. Joe Flacco. Drew Lock. Jeff Driskel. Brett Rypien. Teddy Bridgewater. Jarrett Stidham. Russell Wilson.
Between Peyton Manning's retirement after the 2015 season, and the end of the 2023 season, the Denver Broncos trotted out 13 different quarterbacks with varying levels of ineffectiveness. This list included a first-round pick (Lynch in 2016), a second-round pick (Lock in 2019), and three guys in Flacco, Bridgewater, and Wilson who had been effective starters in other places.
For all kinds of reasons, none of it worked out. So, in the 2024 draft, Denver went back to the well and selected Oregon (by way of Auburn) quarterback Bo Nix with the 12th overall pick. Nix was the sixth quarterback taken in this draft behind Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, Michael Penix Jr., and J.J. McCarthy, but that didn't matter. Nix went to an offense designed by head coach Sean Payton that has been perfect for Nix's physical and mental attributes.
Nix really showed off in Denver's 38-6 Sunday win over the Atlanta Falcons. He completed 28 of 33 passes for 308 yards, four touchdowns to four different receivers, a passer rating of 145.0, and a Passing EPA of +21.4. Nix became the first rookie in NFL history to complete at least 80% of his passes in a game while throwing at least four touchdown passes and for at least 300 yards. He also joined Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud as the only rookies in NFL history to record at least 300 passing yards, four passing touchdowns and a passer rating of at least 140 in a game.
So, that's all pretty good.
“I thought he played well," Payton said of Nix postgame. "You feel like you’re in good hands. He’s smart with the football. He makes plays with his feet. A lot of times you’re calling plays for certain looks [and] the looks aren’t there. He has that ability to create and all the while protect the football. I thought he played really well.”
That's all true, and Nix has developed in Payton's offense exponentially as the season has progressed. When you watch Nix's tape, both at Oregon in 2023 and with the Broncos now, you can see exactly why he's the ideal instrument for Payton's passing concepts.
Working through progressions, and waiting for things to happen
If you're at all familiar with Sean Payton's route designs going back to his days with the New Orleans Saints, you'll know that he's a genius when it comes to assisting his quarterbacks with routes and concepts that take the top off a defense, giving the quarterback defined and easy reads. However, these aren't just quick passes to the flat. If you're asking two or three receivers to extend vertically so that a frontside or backside receiver can get open with any kind of release, those things take time, and can expose the quarterback to pressure.
The quarterback who can deal with these things has to have the ability to read the full field, wait for the openings to happen, and avoid bailing in the pocket before they do. One of the primary reasons for the schism between Payton and Russell Wilson in 2023 was that Wilson wasn't going to wait — he was going to go outside structure before Payton wanted him to. Nix is far more conversant with these ideas, and that played out when he was Oregon's quarterback as well.
The concepts for Nix then and now are not dissimilar. Oregon ran a ton of high-low stuff that had Nix reading out the entire progression, understanding the defense, and reacting intelligently and accordingly. I got to watch tape with Nix in March (along with my good friend Greg Cosell of NFL Films and ESPN's NFL Matchup), and the idea of waiting for the clearing routes to clear came up more than once.
Nix’s 19-yard completion to receiver Troy Franklin Iwho the Broncos selected in the fourth round of the 2024 draft) was but one example.
“Yeah, we had a hi/lo to the boundary, and a hi/lo to the field, an option route by No. 0, Bucky Irving, and a corner route by the tight end," Nix said. "So, we’re in a 3×1 with the tight end to the boundary to get some man/zone indicators. Right here, we know it’s going to be zone, because they didn’t go corners over or anything, and they’re just playing soft shell. The boundary safety messed up — he was supposed to be in the boundary half, and they also had a coverage that was 3-Poach, so he would come down to spy and rob to the 3×1 side, and they would play Cover-3 behind it.
“The boundary safety messes up, and they try to disguise a five-man rush, but it’s really three down with a true defensive end at MIKE. So, we just count him as a big, the slide’s going to the right, so we’re going to be four-for-four with this guy on the right. He’ll never get to the quarterback because [the pressure] comes so late But the boundary safety rolls down, which is fine — I’ve still got my opposite hi/lo, and I just work away from the WILL [linebacker] and the free safety. You hi/lo the MIKE, and the MIKE stays square-shouldered, and we have Troy with speed running through the middle.
“So, it was a simple option Stick/Dig concept, and that’s probably my favorite, because it goes from quick game to intermediate, and you can move through a progression like this. If you don’t like one side, you can just go right to your concept. This was a big third down, and we got the completion.”
It stands to reason that if you can handle these concepts in college, the ramp-up to the NFL will be quite a bit easier. Nix has embodied the advantages to having a leg up on the hi-lo stuff.
Velocity + Accuracy = Arm Talent
![Broncos QB Bo Nix named NFL rookie of the week]()
No matter how complicated or simple your passing game is, you will eventually need your quarterback to grip it and rip it downfield, especially into tight windows. I thought that Nix was seriously underrated as a prospect in that regard. In 2023 for Oregon, he completed 26 of 51 passes of 20 or more air yards for 999 yards, 13 touchdowns, two interceptions, and a passer rating of 119.9. Nix wasn’t a deep passer on the same level as Jayden Daniels out of LSU, but he’s better with it than people think, and that has played out in the NFL of late.
Nix got off to a rough start in that regard, completing just seven of 20 deep passes in the first five weeks of the season for 200 yards, no touchdowns, two interceptions, and a passer rating of 33.3. Since Week 6, he’s completed 12 of 28 deep passes for 309 yards, three touchdowns, one interception, and a passer rating of 104.6. Over that time, no 2024 rookie quarterback has a better deep-ball completion percentage (42.9%), more touchdowns, and a higher passer rating.
Against the Falcons, Nix had two outstanding deep passes which each had seventh-round rookie Devaughn Vele as the target. On both completions, Nix combined mobility, timing, accuracy, and velocity in a compelling package. This is pretty much what arm talent looks like when you want to define it
When asked Monday about Nix’s fearlessness in throwing over the middle, Payton mentioned that it’s been a process.
“The week prior in Kansas City, we had a different route and yet Vele was primary based on the coverage, and we went somewhere else with the throw. Here came a similar type play. There’s never been—on his part—a lack of confidence, relative to his location. He’s extremely accurate, but the windows are just quicker [and] faster in our league. They’re open for a shorter period of time. I think that’s one example of many, but one example where, ‘Does he make that throw Week 1 or Week 2?’ I don’t know, but certainly we’re all getting a chance to see growth as it plays out week by week.”
Payton may have been talking about this incompletion to Troy Franklin against the Chiefs with 6:44 left in the first quarter. Vele had cleared Kansas City’s Cover-3, and was sitting in the zone void. Nix threw to Franklin anyway, and that didn’t go well. Against the Falcons with 2:03 left in the first half, Nix had Franklin and Vele backside with a similar route concept, and this time, he hit Vele after Vele had cleared Atlanta’s Cover-6 and was moving through the zone void. Nix was rewarded with a 33-yard completion.
“We got some shell and some two-deep safety looks today which opens up the middle of the field,” Nix said after the Falcons game. “I feel like we have been confident with those throws all year long. Today we got through the progressions and got to some of them. Two off the top of my head was Vele over the middle between the safeties. I thought that was extremely courageous to go through there knowing you can possibly be hit. [Receiver] Courtland [Sutton] the same way, with almost the same throw. Those two are just typical of what you get from them every day. They are always battling to find ways to get open. They do not care if they are going to take a hit. They are willing to go through there for the betterment of the team. Football is a tough game played by tough people. We know that we are going to have to continue to do that kind of stuff in all spaces of the field to have success. Sometimes you have to take what they give you and they were giving us some over the middle shots today.”
Arm talent isn't just about quarterback talent — receiver talent and coaching talent have to match up. The Broncos are in the dawn of a new era in that regard.
Throwing to all areas of the field
Nix is not a Passing EPA darling. He currently ranks 28th among all qualifying passers at -34.2, and a lot of that has to do with his Completion Rate over Expected (-2.9%), his Air Yards per Attempt (7.7), and his performance on throws of 10-19 air yards (32 of 67 for 610 yards, four touchdowns, two interceptions, and a passer rating of 87.3). Things have gotten better of late, which is the point, but there are still areas where Nix is figuring things out.
One thing he does understand, and seems to get more conversant with as time goes on, is the point guard aspect of his responsibilities in Payton's offense. Against the Falcons, Nix's air Yards per Attempt was in the upper third percentile (10.5), but he had just one pass of 20 or more air yards — his 33-yard completion to Vele which we've already discussed.
It didn't matter as it doesn't matter in Payton's offense. All four of Nix's touchdown passes had some serious yards after catch, and that's a large part of the plan.
Some would use these metrics to paint Nix as a system quarterback who might be hopeless in another offense. I'm not going to stand on a table and scream that he's a scheme-transcendent superstar, but this is a guy who had five different offensive coordinators during his five seasons at Auburn and Oregon, and he's seen more than most college quarterbacks from a schematic perspective.
"They’re going to get an ultimate competitor," Nix told me in March when I asked him what his NFL team would be getting. "They’re going to get a guy who can go out there and be efficient, prepare at a high level, and have passion for the game. It’s going to show as I prepare for the game — I’m going to be ready to play. I’m going to be smart and put the ball where it’s supposed to go. And then, they’re going to get a quarterback who can make the throws, and make plays in space when he needs to.
"I’m excited about it. I’m excited to be the extra piece to a puzzle that wants to be a Super Bowl-contending team. There’s a lot I’m going to have to process and learn as I go, and I’m excited to be coached at a high level. I’m excited to have NFL coaches who have been doing it for so long teach me what they’ve taught so many other guys in the past. I’m going to be like a sponge and take it all in, make sure I’m learning each and every day. I’m never going to have all the answers, and I can always be better until I’ve mastered the thing, and I probably won’t ever master it. So, I’ll always be in a learning stage, and I’m excited to go out there and compete."
The extra piece to a puzzle is exactly what the Denver Broncos have desperately needed at the quarterback position. They've wasted too much talent elsewhere with that lack.
Offensive Rookie of the Year?
Here are the numbers for two quarterbacks through the first 11 weeks of the 2024 NFL season:
QB1: 202 completions on 294 attempts for 2,338 yards, 10 touchdowns, three interceptions, a passer rating of 99.6, and 482 rushing yards and four touchdowns on 92 carries
QB2: 234 completions on 357 attempts for 2,276 yards, 14 touchdowns, six interceptions, a passer rating of 89.3, and 295 rushing yard and four touchdowns on 63 carries
QB1 is Jayden Daniels, who has been the consensus runway winner of the Offensive Rookie of the Year award.
QB2, of course, is Bo Nix. So, things in the rearview are closer than they appear.
Of course, the Broncos could care less if Nix wins that (or any other) award. All they know is that they've been praying for a franchise savior for nearly a decade, churning through coaches and rosters in that process, and they might finally have their man at the game's most important position. The quarterback who can ideally take the elevated mind of his head coach onto the field in a tangible fashion.
In the end, and however Bo Nix gets there, that's all that matters. Now, he's on his way.
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