Breaking down the Tampa Bay Lightning’s lack of success in the postseason

Since losing to the Colorado Avalanche in the 2022 Stanley Cup Final, the Tampa Bay Lightning have not relented in their pursuit of victory. However, the winning has all but stopped for the Lightning, yet to win a playoff round since. The team has wriggled and writhed to change players, but often they have been overtaken by stronger divisional rivals.

In many ways these manoeuvres have bore fruit, as the decision to prioritize Jake Guentzel over Steven Stamkos was equal parts provocative and effective. So too was swapping out Mikhail Sergachev for J.J. Moser. Lightning GM Julien Brisebois has been shrewd in acquiring younger and relatively cheaper talent. 

Defining a window 

While Stamkos might have been replaced, the team’s true window might be closing with the prime of Victor Hedman. In some ways the mantle of top forward had long been passed to Nikita Kucherov, and top centre to Brayden Point. Perhaps even Anthony Cirelli had overtaken Stamkos on the depth chart as a centre, and even Brandon Hagel on the wing.

What has not been challenged or replaced is Hedman at the top of the defensive depth chart. His stiffest challenge comes from fellow elder statesman Ryan McDonagh, which is hardly a consolation. There are effective pieces to work with, but the burden on Hedman remains heavy. Through age and injury he is diminished. There is only a certain amount of time for Hedman and McDonagh to come close to replicating their effectiveness from this season, which itself might be a steep ask. 

No support has been found

Instead of lamenting the inevitable the goal should instead be to better support Hedman. Acquiring a player equal to Hedman in his prime is almost impossible, but the blueline as a whole might require an upgrade for the Lightning to get back to their winning ways. The combination of cap cost, acquisition cost, and risk is an intricate problem with imperfect solutions. 

To make matters more complicated, the Lightning have already shipped out a lot of potential trade assets. Perhaps adding a premier player like Rasmus Andersson or Aaron Ekblad could bolster the blueline enough to bring the Lightning back to top form, but affording them is another question altogether. Younger options that might have higher upside, say Bowen Byram, might be a gamble, but again the Lightning might be pressed for assets to entice the Buffalo Sabres.

Could Howard be the canary in a coal mine?

Perhaps central to this whole conundrum is unsigned draft pick Isaac Howard. One of the rare first round selections the Lightning have made in recent years, Howard is even more valuable because of the lack of high end prospects the team has. Howard appears willing to outlast the rights the Lightning will have over him. Not only does this remove a top prospect from the lineup, it also takes leverage from the team in trade negotiations. The development of Connor Geekie becomes all the more important.

The Lightning do have a lot of prime left from their forward group. One can only guess the reasons for Howard’s decision making process. Maybe he feels that the Lightning might trade him if he signed, or maybe he has another destination in mind specifically. Perhaps he sees the Lightning’s window fading, though that might be a stretch. For those searching for signs of portents Howard deferring might be the canary in the coal mine, the sign that the future is more bleak than it seems. 

Their window is closing

Without much trade capital the Lightning will be hard pressed to extend their window. The team will have to be aggressive in targeting upgrades for the blueline in the years ahead. Given their recent playoff struggles the Lightning might be coming to terms with the fact that their window is still attached to Victor Hedman. 

If the Lightning are able to upgrade the blueline in a meaningful way the team will be much more dangerous. A better blueline will make life much easier for Andrei Vasilevskiy, just as it will give more opportunities for the Lightning forwards. With Nick Perbix hitting unrestricted free agency, the Lightning might have a tough decision on whether or not to retain the big defensive right shot. Meanwhile, the blueline is balanced enough that adding a more offensive option might be helpful.