It’s looking abundantly clear that Isaac Howard will not be suiting up for the Tampa Bay Lightning. The team’s general manager Julien BriseBois confirmed it during the exit interviews.
“The reality is, we haven’t been able to come to an agreement that is mutually acceptable,” BriseBois said on Friday. “If that doesn’t change, he will become a free agent on August 15 of 2026.”
In that case, the Lightning will receive compensation in the form of a second-round pick in 2027. If they let this scenario play out, they’re going to go from having a star talent on the way to having a pick of lesser value. These picks can hit and become stars. Reigning Art Ross winner Nikita Kucherov was a late second-rounder. However, it’s a dice roll to settle for that. This is especially the case when Howard is currently set to be the Lightning’s only first-round pick between 2019 and 2028.
If you’re the Lightning, you need to shop Howard’s rights as part of a trade to get something in return. With a shallow prospect pool to begin with and not much to further supply it, they have to work on getting maximum value out of losing their top prospect.
Background on Isaac Howard
Howard was drafted by the Lightning 31st overall in the 2022 NHL Draft. Since then, he’s been a standout in the NCAA with the Michigan State Spartans. Howard’s most recent season earned him the Hobey Baker Award, the award for the top college hockey player.
He also dominated during the 2024 World Juniors, helping lead Team USA to the gold medal. All of this success hyped up his future with the Lightning, and just like that, it’s looking as good as gone. However, there is an argument that his success in college and international competition has boosted his draft stock enough to make exploring this option worth it instead of just taking the default compensation.
Looking at Potential Swaps
One route the Lightning could explore is to trade Howard for another prospect with upside. A situation they could point to for inspiration is when the Philadelphia Flyers had to trade forward prospect Cutter Gauthier. He didn’t want to play for the Flyers, so he was sent off to the Anaheim Ducks in exchange for Jamie Drysdale.
It can be a player they acquire who is already on an entry-level deal, which would be an idea because he would be in their system, or another player they could sign.
Another option could be that they go and try to get draft compensation that is of higher value than what they would get from letting Howard sign elsewhere. This scenario would be a push to acquire a first-round pick, or else this avenue wouldn’t make much sense. The best strategy to make this option work is to coordinate deals with teams that have multiple first-round picks in an upcoming draft.
Some examples include the Chicago Blackhawks, Calgary Flames and Seattle Kraken. Both the Blackhawks and Flames have two first-round picks in 2025 and 2026. The Kraken have two first-round picks in 2026 and 2027. Howard could be a promising forward to join Connor Bedard in Chicago or provide the Kraken with more quality young talent.
He could be the missing piece on a Flames team that missed the playoffs on a tiebreaker. The latter had the fourth-worst goals per game last season (2.68).
They could also try to include Howard’s rights in a package deal for multiple pieces. That would require the Lightning to give up more than just Howard, but this could be worth the move, depending on what they get.
There are a few ways they could explore a trade that would benefit the Lightning more than a 2027 second-round pick. They have time to make a decision. They have about 15 months to greenlight a trade. This time should be used wisely, though. This is their chance to set up their future for more Cup-winning success. Howard can still be part of that path to the next window, but his contribution could be the trade he becomes a part of, too.
