Who is the key to the Broncos winning on Sunday?
The Denver Broncos beat the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday to end their nine-year playoff drought. With rookie quarterback Bo Nix at the helm, they strung together ten wins to finally return to the postseason. The Broncos head to Buffalo to face the Bills on Sunday at 1 p.m., and need Patrick Surtain II to have a massive game to pull off the upset.
The 2020 season was the first one that allowed seven teams into the playoffs. In the eight games between the number two seed and number seven seed, only one upset has occurred. It was last year when the Packers beat the Cowboys. So it would be a significant upset for the Broncos to win, but they have the defense to do it. While Josh Allen may win the NFL MVP, one great defensive performance could spoil his January.
The Bills have had success this season spreading the ball around to all different receivers. They traded Stefon Diggs to the Houston Texans and got better on offense with Amari Cooper, Mack Hollins, and Keon Coleman at wideout. The offense set an NFL record for receiving touchdowns by different players with 13, including Allen himself.
This will be a unique challenge for Surtain, who spent this year dominating top receivers. The Bills are one of the few contenders without a true number-one receiver so it is not obvious who Surtain will cover. But shutting off half of the field is a great start to defending Allen.
While the Broncos are heavy underdogs in this game, they have the defense necessary to pull off a big upset. Who else could help alongside Patrick Surtain II in the secondary?
Patrick Surtain II is not alone in the Broncos' secondary
The Broncos' worst games of the year on defense came when Riley Moss was on the shelf with a knee injury. They gave up 32 points to the Browns, 13 points to the Colts, and 34 points to the Chargers in his absence. He is the unsung hero of the secondary considering Surtain was a first-round pick but considering the Bills' depth, he will be important in this game.
Containing Josh Allen is the key to beating the Bills and is nearly impossible. Buffalo only lost three games before Week 18 this season, including a 42-point effort against the Rams. Their loss to the Texans was full of confounding coaching decisions and they lost to the Ravens because of Derrick Henry's dominance. When Allen has the ball in close games, he usually gets the job done with his arm or legs.
There is no bigger defensive X-Factor on Wild Card Weekend than Surtain and Moss. They hold the keys to knocking off the number-two seed in the AFC and the Super Bowl favorite on that side of the bracket. But the offense has to help them out and cannot fall on their face in this game either.
The key for the Broncos is that they will be running the ball, which is another reason why Nix is not the X-Factor. They have three running backs who can share the carry load in this game. Javonte Williams, Jaleel McLaughlin, and Audric Estime have all been solid but not fantastic this season. They need one or all of those players to dominate to have any chance, and for the same reason, they need Surtain to dominate. Keeping the ball out of Josh Allen's hands is the key to victory.
The Broncos are 8.5-point underdogs and +360 on the money line, according to FanDuel. They have the longest odds in the AFC to reach the Super Bowl at +3000, tied with the Texans.
