The old saying "what goes up, must come down," is a universal truth of the NHL. The best eventually tumble and fall while those down below ascend to the top. It's a constant seesaw of a league. Unfortunately for most teams, they tend to forget that the fall is coming while they're at the top. It's why so many players cash out with new deals after performing well in a contract year. It's also why so many good teams overestimate their own players' abilities and longevity.
That's the case with these three Eastern Conference players. Their teams are either holding too high an expectation or are overvaluing what they will bring in 2025 and beyond.
Let's dive into three regression candidates for the 2025-2026 NHL season.
Morgan Geekie - Boston Bruins
Morgan Geekie had a breakout offensive campaign last season and was one of the only bright spots in a dismal Bruins season. He scored 33 goals and finished with 57 points. He parlayed a career-best season into a new contract with Boston.
The reason why Geekie is likely to regress in 2025 is less because of the player and more because of the situation he's in. The Bruins are one of the worst teams on paper at this point of the offseason. It's hard to see where their offense will come from outside of Geekie and David Pastrnak. The lack of support will eventually be too much for that duo to sustain their production. Because of this, Geekie's offensive numbers are set to dip next season.
Darren Raddysh - Tampa Bay Lightning
Sticking in the Atlantic Division, defenseman Darren Raddysh has quietly become an excellent second and third-pairing defenseman for the Tampa Bay Lightning. He's surpassed the 30-point mark in back-to-back campaigns, including 31 assists and 37 points last season.
The 29-year-old saw his ice time dip last year, going from 19:06 average ice time to 17:18 minutes per game. Currently set to occupy the right side of the bottom pairing, Raddysh is unlikely to hit 30 points for a third straight season.
Logan Thompson - Washington Capitals
Logan Thompson was simply spectacular for the Washington Capitals last year. In 42 starts, he went 31-6-6 with a 2.49 goals-against average, a .910 save percentage and two shutouts. His first season made the pair of third-round picks the Capitals sent to the Vegas Golden Knights look like an absolute steal.
The Capitals as a whole overachieved last season as the magic of Alex Ovechkin's historic pursuit motivated the entire team to reach a new level. Their loss in the second round of the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs was possibly the last run for Ovi's Capitals. Playing the most dangerous position on the ice, it's hard to envision Thompson repeating his magical season in 2025-2026.
