The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the three-time defending NFC South Division champions. They bring back almost every single one of their key players from 2023. They hit a home run with almost every pick in the 2024 NFL draft.
In the eyes of The Ringer’s Sheil Kapadia, that’s still not enough to overcome the sheer power of the Atlanta Falcons now that they’ve added free-agent quarterback Kirk Cousins to the mix.
On the May 7 episode of the Extra Point Taken podcast, Kapadia listed the Falcons among his six teams who didn’t make the playoffs in 2023 but will make the playoffs in 2024 and listed the Buccaneers among his six teams who made the playoffs in 2023 but won’t make it in 2024.
Kapadia pointed out that recent history backs up his take.
“Since the NFL moved to this format with 14 teams making the playoffs (in 2020), we have seen at least six new playoff teams each season,” Kapadia said. “And so every summer I like to predict who are those six new playoff teams gonna be, and who are the six playoff teams from last year that are going to drop out.”
Kapadia’s six new playoff teams in 2024 were the Falcons, Cincinnati Bengals, Los Angeles Chargers, Chicago Bears, New York Jets and Seattle Seahawks.
His six teams that wouldn’t make the playoffs in 2024 after making it in 2023 were the Buccaneers, Miami Dolphins, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers, Los Angeles Rams and Dallas Cowboys.
‘The Falcons Clearly Should Win the NFC South’
Extra Point Taken co-host Ben Solak said he was most on board with the Falcons making the playoffs when asked what he thought was the biggest lock out of the six new teams.
“I’m going to say the Falcons,” Solak said. “The Falcons clearly should win the NFC South … they have the best quarterback in the division. That’s the first time in three years I’m telling you the Falcons are gonna win the (NFC) South.
“They have the best quarterback in the division and the offensive line is solid to great at all five spots. They have good weapons. They have Drake London and Kyle Pitts. They have Bijan Robinson.”
Calling Cousins the best quarterback in the division should give plenty of motivation to the other three starters, including Tampa Bay quarterback Baker Mayfield, who made his first Pro Bowl in 2023 and signed a 3-year contract worth up to $115 million.
Cousins is a four-time Pro Bowler who played the last six seasons with the Minnesota Vikings but suffered a season-ending torn Achilles tendon in Week 8 in 2023.
In March, the Falcons signed Cousins to a 4-year, $180 million contract.
What Do Oddsmakers Think About Falcons, Bucs?
Oddsmakers seem to be thinking along the same lines of Kapadia and Solak.
FanDuel has the Falcons as de facto division champions with an over/under projection of 9.5 wins in 2024 after going 7-10 in 2023. The Buccaneers and New Orleans Saints, who both went 9-8 in 2023, have their over/under total set at 7.5 wins.
The Carolina Panthers, who went 2-15 in 2023, have their over/under total set at 5.5 wins.
