Can The Bucs Find The Next Shaq Barrett?

Shaq Barrett is one of a kind. It’s not often that a team like the Bucs lucks into a superstar edge rusher who had been lying around the NFL as a backup for four years and allowed to get to free agency without so much as a “how do you do?” from his previous team. To get that kind of talent for just $5 million only to have him deliver 19.5 sacks … well that’s a once in a lifetime find.

So, let’s see if we can do it again, shall we?

What Jason Licht Saw In Shaq Barrett In 2019

Shaq Barrett was an afterthought of free agency. The Bucs got him on a one-year prove it deal for just $3 million guaranteed. But Bucs general manager Jason Licht saw a potential star, as did former personnel executive John Spytek, who came from the Broncos where he got to see Barrett up-close and personal in Denver.

Barrett’s underlying production was tantalizing. In limited playing time Pro Football Focus had charted him with 22 quarterback hits, 15 sacks and 67 hurries for a total of 104 pressures in just 861 pass rush reps. His 12.1% pressure rate over his time in Denver is comparable to Brian Burns’ current career rate. His pass rush win rate over those four years never dipped below 10.5% and peaked at 16.0%.

Barrett had just never really been given an opportunity to play significant snaps.

The Bucs provided him with that opportunity, and as we all know he flourished for several seasons before an Achilles injury in 2022 sapped him of much of his superpowers – notably his quick get-off.

Bucs Could Be Looking For Another Diamond In The Rough

Shaq Barrett was an underutilized, but efficient pass rusher who was waiting to breakout. He was a legitimate No. 1 edge rusher for the better part of four seasons. The Bucs could use a legitimate No. 1 edge right now, but that won’t be Barrett, who is 33 and re-signed with the team just at the end of last season.

The team has full faith and confidence in Yaya Diaby. They see him as a future double-digit sacker. This means it is not a slam dunk that they will trade for an established alpha like Trey Henderson. And picking at No. 19 in the draft means that a blue-chip edge rusher like Marshall’s Mike Green may not be there by the time they pick.

If they see Diaby as front-end guy they may be looking to catch lightning in a bottle across from him. Licht may feel like he can find a high-upside, low-risk option just like he did with Barrett in 2019. That may be last year’s second-round pick Chris Braswell, who came on strong late in his rookie season. Braswell increased his pressure rate after Week 8 from 7.9% to 14.3%.

If it’s not Braswell, Licht may be looking for a flyer like Barrett was when he originally joined the Bucs. And now we have a strong statistical profile to search for in order to find potential targets that Licht and his pro personnel department might take a look at.

I’m going to limit my search to players that average less than 250 and more than 100 pass rush snaps per season with a pressure rate of 12% or more and who have a pass rush win rate no lower than 10.5% in any season. And if that player has a spike in that department in 2024 all the better. I’m not going to limit my search to just pending free agents. Licht has been known to use the trade market before.

I found three players.

Josh Uche

Josh Uche was a player I advocated the Bucs picking up last year. He ultimately re-signed with the Patriots for a below market deal. Uche broke out in 2022 with 56 pressures per Pro Football Focus and 11.5 sacks. He has a history of playing in a multiple system that asked him to do more than just rush off the edge. Uche is a smaller speed/bend player with fantastic dip and burst. That skillset is something the Bucs have lacked off the edge since Shaq Barrett started to decline in 2022.

Uche’s snap counts have been on the decline. He played just 249 snaps between New England and Kansas City, who traded for him, this year. Uche would be the definition of a buy-low candidate with some really tantalizing talent. He will be just 27 when the 2025 season starts and he will be relatively cheap. A deal for him will be similar to Barrett’s 2019 deal coming in around $5 million.

James Houston

James Houston burst onto the scene as a rookie in 2022. He posted 17 pressures and eight sacks in 92 pass rush snaps. That’s an incredible 18.5% pressure rate. His ghost-hop was both unique and effective.

He recorded four sacks in his first five games, but injuries robbed him of 2023. He played just 42 snaps that year.

Last year he played in eight games with the Lions and was a fairly productive pass rusher. But Detroit released him despite numerous injuries to their defense and along their defensive line specifically. The Browns picked him up and he played sparingly for the final three weeks of the season. Despite the lack of playing time Houston still notched 15 pressures in 2024. Another high-side arc winner, Houston would be a good compliment to the Bucs current pass rush that features three strong inside winners in Vita Vea, Calijah Kancey and Yaya Diaby.

Houston is a restricted free agent. The Browns will have the opportunity to keep him on their roster if they truly want him. But the Bucs will have an opportunity to make an offer to Houston. If the Browns place a restricted free agent tender it would mean Tampa Bay would have to give him at least a $3 million contract and draft compensation to Cleveland.

Trade Candidate

Nick Herbig

Nate Herbig is a rising star locked in behind two established studs in Alex Highsmith and T.J. Watt. Amazingly, even when one of the veterans came off the field the heat did not get notched down for opposing quarterbacks. In just two seasons and 308 pass rush snaps Herbig has registered 37 pressures and 8.5 sacks. Last season he leveled up with an 11.9% pressure rate and 15.9% pass rush win rate. He has one of the best first steps in the NFL and is another high-side winner.

The Steelers spent a fourth-round draft pick on Herbig in 2023. And he’s more than paid off that investment.

Highsmith is on a team-friendly deal and all indications are that Pittsburgh will extend Watt, a future Hall of Famer. That doesn’t leave a clear path for Herbig to get into a starter’s role. Still, Herbig is on a cheap rookie contract and the Steelers value their pass rush.

It might surprise you that it would take a first-round pick to get the Steelers to relinquish him. For that kind of price-tag the Bucs would be more likely to pursue an established veteran like Trey Hendrickson. But the idea of getting an ascending player rather than a likely declining one is an interesting thought experiment.

The likelihood the Bucs find another Shaq Barrett is extremely small. Pass rushers are so valuable teams try at all costs to keep them around. With that said, Jason Licht had a really good process. And that’s a process he can replicate because it involves minimizing risk and maximizing reward. Of these three players I would say a deal for Herbig is the least likely because the Steelers will have little-to-no incentive to move a talented and cost-controlled piece and the cost to acquire will be prohibitive for Licht and company.

I keep coming back to Uche. I thought it would have been good process last year, but Uche seemed hell-bent on returning to New England. A year later after the Patriots once again limited his snaps and eventually traded him, Uche may be more inclined to find a home that can maximize his bank account and his talents more. I could see the Bucs being that fit.

And who knows? Maybe Tampa Bay finds its next Shaq Barrett.