Capitals must complete rare 3-1 comeback against Hurricanes and history is not on their side

The Washington Capitals have zero room for error. There’s just no other way to slice it.

After falling 5-2 to the Carolina Hurricanes in Game 4 on Monday, the Caps are now down three games to one in their second-round playoff series. If they can’t find a win in Game 5 on Thursday, they’ll fall to 1-6 in playoff series since lifting the Stanley Cup in 2018.

“We’re going to have to slowly try and push them out of the series. Obviously, our backs are against the wall,” winger Tom Wilson said in the post-game locker room. “Next game is the biggest game. Start with the first period and go from there. It’s not going to be easy. They’re a hard-working team, but we’re going to have some fight here.”

Wilson’s right, it’s not going to be easy. In the history of the NHL, only 32 teams out of 352 have successfully come back from down 3-1 to win a best-of-seven series (9.1 percent). When starting the series at home, teams seem to have a slightly better chance at making a comeback, going 15-109 (12.1 winning percentage. The Capitals have home ice due to being the Eastern Conference’s first seed.

The most recent team to do so was the 2023 Florida Panthers, who rallied to topple the Boston Bruins in the first round of their eventual march to the Stanley Cup Final. The Edmonton Oilers forced a Game 7 in the Cup final against the Panthers last season but joined the list of teams that failed to complete the epic rebound.

Teams to come back from 3-1 deficit in series to win

As you may have noticed, the Capitals are on that list not once but twice. The team successfully rallied from down 3-1 to win a playoff series in 1988 and 2009.

1988 Patrick Division Semifinals

The Caps, then a two-seed, lost Games 1, 3, and 4 to the three-seeded Philadelphia Flyers in the division semifinals. The latter of the trio of losses came in overtime at The Spectrum.

But defenseman Kevin Hatcher almost single-handedly rallied the team back into the series, setting the franchise record for most points scored by a blue liner in a single playoff series (nine). Hatcher shared the team record for most points scored by a defenseman in a playoff run (12) with John Carlson until the current Capitals alternate-captain smashed that in 2018 (20).

After outscoring the Flyers 17-8 in Games 5-7, the Caps advanced to the Patrick Division Finals for the third time in five years. Dale Hunter scored the most iconic goal in franchise history to that point at the 5:57 mark of Game 7’s overtime to complete the series comeback.

2009 Eastern Conference Quarterfinals

Entering the playoffs as the two-seed in the Eastern Conference, the Capitals were stunned after losing Games 1 and 2 to the seventh-seeded New York Rangers at Verizon Center.

Two goals from Alex Semin plus separate tallies from Brooks Laich and Tom Poti resulted in a 4-0 shutout victory to get the team on the board in the series at Madison Square Garden in Game 3.

The blue shirts, however, survived a low-scoring Game 4 to get themselves within one win of the second round heading back to DC.

That’s when the “Young Guns” unleashed the fury, scoring 10 goals over three straight victories to pull off the series rally. But it was veteran Sergei Fedorov’s match-winning third-period snipe in Game 7 that nearly blew the roof off Verizon Center.

So, don’t count the Caps out just yet. If there’s anything this year’s team knows best, it’s comebacks. The team led the league this season in comeback wins (25) with an additional two in nine games this postseason (both against Montreal).

It will all start with Game 5 on Thursday, which is set for a 7 pm puck drop and will be aired on TNT.