The Washington Capitals are one loss away from shutting things down on the 2024-25 season. The Carolina Hurricanes used opportune scoring to stifle the Caps in Raleigh again, securing a 5-2 victory in Game 4.
I think this was actually the best game the Caps played in this series. That’s just how it goes in the playoffs, almost all the time.
- The Capitals played the Hurricanes almost exactly how you’d draw up a Caps win against the Hurricanes. While Carolina controlled more of the five-on-five shot attempts (55-43), the Capitals controlled more of the scoring chances (24-18) and especially more of the high-danger chances (9-4). Unfortunately, that sky-high, league-leading five-on-five shooting percentage from the regular season did not follow the team into this series. They shot 10.7 percent over the course of the regular season and are shooting a league-worst 5.1 percent in the second round, which is 3.1 percent lower than the next-worst team…the Hurricanes (8.2 percent). The Canes shot 8.7 percent during the regular season, and we all know why they aren’t towards the top there…they would shoot the puck from behind their own net if it was an open enough look.
- In their two road games in Raleigh at five-on-five, the Capitals owned 55.1 percent of the expected goals and 61.1 percent of the high-danger chances. If you told me that before the trip, I would have expected them to come back with a 3-1 series lead, not the opposite. Again, as I said in the intro, this sort of stuff just happens in the playoffs. There are more intangibles, pure luck, and sheer randomness at play in a series that numbers can’t quite quantify. We all know that full well (2016 and 2017 second rounds).
- The Caps have come from behind 3-1 in a playoff series to win just once in the Ovechkin era, rattling off three straight wins against the New York Rangers in the first round of the 2009 postseason. The lone other time they’ve done so in franchise history was against the Philadelphia Flyers in the 1988 Patrick Division Semifinals. Clutch goals from Sergei Fedorov and Dale Hunter provided the Game 7 victories in those series.
- Logan Thompson didn’t have a good game, and the Capitals really needed him to have a good game. He made 32 saves on the 36 shots he faced. Per MoneyPuck, he allowed 1.62 more goals than expected. That second goal, scored by Seth Jarvis, just cannot happen.
- Alex Ovechkin scored his fifth goal of the playoffs and 77th of his postseason career in the third period. With the goal, he passed Mario Lemieux (76) for the 12th-most playoff goals in NHL history. I’m sure Mario has the congratulations video ready to go.
- The Capitals scored on the five-on-three advantage, but overall, their power play was pitiful. A good power play can cover up a whole lot of bad luck and struggle five-on-five, and instead, the Capitals’ man-advantage unit just compounded the bad. In their 8:26 of five-on-four action, the Capitals only outchanced the Hurricanes 4-3 and went even with the penalty killers in high-danger chances 1-1. Just unacceptable.
Alex Alexeyev benched in third period of Game 4 by Spencer Carbery
Spencer Carbery shortened his bench with the Washington Capitals trailing in a pivotal Game 4 against the Carolina Hurricanes. The second-year bench boss went with essentially five defensemen for much of the night.
Third-pairing defender Alex Alexeyev skated only 5:48 of ice time in the Capitals’ 5-2 loss. The Russian rearguard didn’t see the ice in the third period at all, and his last shift came with 5:42 remaining in the second.
Alexeyev was on the ice for Shayne Gostisbehere’s first-period goal that gave Carolina a 1-0 lead, and saw only five shifts after that.
Alexeyev, who played in only eight games during the regular season, was called into full-time action in the playoffs due to Martin Fehervary’s season-ending knee injury.
The 25-year-old, former first-round pick has had some impressive moments skating with Trevor van Riemsdyk, including playing through a high-stick where he lost three of his top teeth. But his numbers overall in the postseason have otherwise not been optimal.
With Alexeyev on the ice at five-on-five, the Capitals own only 30.8 percent of the shot attempts, 37.9 percent of the expected goals, 31.1 percent of the scoring chances, and 38.0 percent of the high-danger chances. One positive is that while the Capitals have been stuck in their own zone with Alexeyev on the ice, they’ve only been outscored 2-0 during his 37:55 time on ice.
Carbery has not tinkered with his starting six defensemen in the playoffs, keeping Hershey Bears callup Ethan Bear and Dylan McIlrath in reserve.
If aggressive changes were to happen, Carbery could look to his scratches with the team down 3-1 in the best-of-seven series and facing elimination on Thursday.
