The Kansas City Chiefs have dominated the AFC West for the past decade, but according to many around the footballing world, their long-held success could be under threat.
According to sports books, the Chiefs are around a -130 favorite to win the AFC West, giving them a little over a 55% implied probability of winning the division.
Sounds good, right? In theory; any one team having a greater than 50% chance at winning a division is normally somewhat of a heavy favorite. Even the CJ Stroud-led Texans, who play in the lowly AFC South, are at plus money (less than 50% chance) to hoist their division title.
Yet, for Kansas City, this is a big drop in their likelihood at winning the division, which at a similar point last year held at around -250, giving them over a 71% chance at taking home the West – which they duly did.
And it seems like it is not just the books that have noticed this opening up of the division, as Bleacher Report’s Moe Moton wrote on Monday that the Chiefs are the “Biggest Losers” of the AFC West this offseason.
“The Kansas City Chiefs should feel the walls closing in on their nine-year reign over the AFC West,” Moton writes, “The Los Angeles Chargers added size and firepower to compete with the Chiefs…The Denver Broncos upgraded at the tight end position, signing Evan Engram [and]…The Las Vegas Raiders have battled the Chiefs in one-possession games in their last three meetings with Aidan O’Connell and Gardner Minshew under center. ”
“The Chiefs didn’t make any boneheaded offseason moves, but they’re no longer head and shoulders above their division rivals. The Chargers, Broncos and Raiders are equipped to knock them off their AFC West pedestal.”
Chiefs ‘No Longer Head And Shoulders’ Over Rest Of AFC West
Whilst it is probably too early to talk about the now Geno Smith-led Raiders overtaking the Chiefs – a team that still has considerable roster holes on the offensive line, receiver and secondary; the Broncos and Chargers are looking more and more like the real deal.
Questions remain over Denver’s selection of UCF running back, RJ Harvey ahead of Kaleb Johnson in the second round of the draft, but Denver’s already prominent defense is set to be a real problem after the addition of cornerback, Jahdae Barron to play alongside reigning Defensive Player of the Year, Pat Surtain II.
And the Chargers look like perhaps the most complete of the all challengers, having selected running back, Omarion Hampton, and receiver, Tre Harris with their first two picks in last month’s draft.
Kansas City Perennially Tough To Bet Against In Division
Even with the Chargers and Broncos upgrades, and the Chiefs losing starters like Tershawn Wharton, Justin Reid, Joe Thuney and Derrick Nnadi; KC would be a tough bet to lay – now and until they are ultimately deposed of atop the West.
Mahomes and head coach, Andy Reid, have an almost Belichickian ‘next man up’ approach that has seen them fill roster holes with no-name third day draft picks, with them having filled in impressively time and time again.
Perhaps the days of the Chiefs going 6-0 and 5-1 in division as a borderline lock are no longer guaranteed, but they will not vacate the title without a very tough fight.
