Kansas City Chiefs rookie WR Xavier Worthy isn't yet getting the love he deserves as a potential Offensive Rookie of the Year candidate in 2024.
One reason is that Worthy hasn't been on the field much during OTAs and mandatory minicamp as he's nursed a minor hamstring injury. There is no denying he missed a part of the offseason during which chemistry and timing are built for on offense. Still, Worthy has a lot going for him heading into his rookie campaign.
He's playing for the back-to-back Super Bowl champions, who were by all accounts a wide-receiver-deficient team during the 2023 NFL season. He's going to be catching passes from two-time league MVP and three-time Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes. He's also slotting into an offense crafted by a future Hall of Fame head coach in Andy Reid, who always finds ways to get playmakers like Worthy involved. The situation couldn't possibly be better for Wortht, yet he's not getting recognition as a legitimate threat to win the league's annual award recognizing a standout rookie on offense.
What are Xavier Worthy's Offensive Rookie of the Year odds?
DraftKings Sportsbook: +1800
Fanduel: + 2000
Caesar's Sportsbook: +1100
Right now, Worthy is consistently given worse or equal odds to the following players:
- Chicago Bears QB Caleb Williams (+135, +125, +150)
- Arizona Cardinals WR Marvin Harrison, Jr. (+550, +650, +550)
- Washington Commanders QB Jayden Daniels (+700, +750, +750)
- Minnesota Vikings QB J.J. McCarthy (+1500, +1700)
- New York Giants WR Malik Nabers (+1800, +1500)
- Denver Broncos QB Bo Nix (+1800, +2000)
How hard is it for a wide receiver to win Offensive Rookie of the Year?
Only 11 receivers have won the AP Offensive Rookie of the Year award since its inception back in 1967. That doesn't seem like a lot, but it's actually becoming much more prominent than the RB position as the NFL has moved to a passing league over the years. Four receivers have won the award since 2009, including wins by Ja'Marr Chase in 2021 and Garrett Wilson in 2022. Chase had 81 receptions for 1,455 yards and 13 touchdowns as a rookie, while Wilson had 83 receptions for 1,103 yards and four touchdowns.
The biggest challenge for a player like Worthy winning this year might have nothing to do with his statistical production. The fact that five rookie quarterbacks could vie for the award is going to make things extra challenging. Surprisingly, only 11 quarterbacks have ever won the AP Offensive Rookie of the Year award, which is the same number as the wide receiver position. The most recent quarterback win came in 2023 with Houston Texans QB C.J. Stroud.
What type of stats will Chiefs WR Xavier Worthy need to put up to win the award?
Each of the past two winners at receiver had over 80 receptions and over 1,100 yards, so it's a safe bet that those are the numbers to shoot for. Touchdown receptions seem to have a fairly high variance over the years, ranging from low single digits to the teens. Keep in mind, that the top-end performance would also break the Chiefs' rookie receiving record: 79 receptions (Rashee Rice), 995 yards (Dwayne Bowe), and seven receiving touchdowns (Rashee Rice).
The floor seems to be a year like Percy Harvin had back in 2009, where he had 75 touches for 925 yards and six touchdowns. The award is for offensive production, but there's no doubt special teams played some consideration in that one, too. Harvin had 42 kick returns for 1,156 yards and two additional touchdowns.
