The playoffs are over a week away
The Washington Commanders continue to emerge as victors. They've won four games in a row, most of which have been nail-biters. Following a pre-bye week victory over the Tennessee Titans back on Dec. 1, the team returned and held off the New Orleans Saints for a one-point win in Week 15. This was followed by a five-touchdown performance from Jayden Daniels as the Commanders overcame a two-score deficit to stun the Philadelphia Eagles. And this past Sunday, the Commanders secured a postseason spot after besting the Atlanta Falcons in overtime.
Washington currently holds an 11-2 record — the team's first 11-win season in more than three decades. One could safely say that drafting Daniels has paid dividends for the organization.
Nevertheless, it's only natural that people will have differing opinions about how they'll fare in the playoffs. After all, Daniels is still a rookie, and the postseason is where each team's mettle will be tested the most. Only the coming weeks will tell if Washington can keep defying the odds. To do just that, it would help if the Commanders end up with the smoothest postseason road possible…which is why they should avoid falling to the seventh seed at all costs.
A seventh-seed placement makes life difficult for the Commanders
Right now, the Commanders are competing with the Green Bay Packers for the sixth seed. Both teams currently hold a similar record, with Washington winning the tiebreaker thanks to a better conference record. If the Commanders defeat the Dallas Cowboys this weekend, they officially secure the sixth seed. If the Commanders lose, in addition to the Packers beating the Chicago Bears, then the opposite happens, with Green Bay climbing to number six while the Commanders settle for the seventh seed.
Assuming Washington ends up at number seven, the uphill climb will be quite steep. Awaiting them are the second-seeded Philadelphia Eagles. Yes, the Commanders did get the best of the Eagles already, but it's important to note that Jalen Hurts left in the first quarter of that game due to a concussion. So for most of the afternoon, it was a Jayden Daniels-Kenny Pickett matchup at QB. The Commanders have yet to experience four quarters of Hurts under center, so that's one thing to think about.
Let's say that the Commanders pull off another upset and rally past the Eagles for the second time. Being the lowest seed in the second round pits them against either the Detroit Lions or the Minnesota Vikings, who are both currently vying for the conference's top seed. No matter who ends up with the first-round bye, it'll be a lot on the table for Daniels and the Commanders' running backs, since the Vikings and Lions boast the league's second and third-best run defense (respectively). Minnesota allows foes an average of just 88.1 rushing yards per game, while Detroit gives up 97.0 rushing yards per game, per ESPN.
A matchup with the Vikings is also unfavorable for Washington's passing game, considering how the Minnesota defense has already tallied a total of 47 sacks — third most among all teams. Add in how Jayden Daniels is the sixth-most sacked QB this season and the whole thing isn't really a comfortable thought for any Commanders fan.
As for the Lions, their all-around offense has been unstoppable the entire season, and it's difficult to see how the Commanders — who still have lots of room to improve defensively against the run — can slow them down.
The smoothest road for the Commanders is a sixth-seed placement and a Wild-Card clash with the Los Angeles Rams
If the Commanders end up at number six, they face either the Los Angeles Rams or the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who are both in contention for the third seed. Matching up with the Rams is theoretically much better for Dan Quinn's squad, considering how the Buccaneers beat the Commanders to open the season.
Back in September, Tampa Bay's defense prevented any passing touchdowns, as all of the Commanders' scores happened via carries. Of course, this could just be an anomaly, since Tampa Bay is surprisingly one of the league's worst teams in terms of pass defense. In addition to the amount of yards they give up, the Buccaneers have allowed foes a total of 26 passing touchdowns this season. Factor in how the season opener was Daniels' NFL debut and overall, a potential rematch doesn't look too concerning for the Commanders from a certain angle.
Still, matching up with the Rams is the best bet. For one, the LA offense is going through a slump. Through their last three games — which have all been against below-500 teams — the Rams haven't reached the 20-point mark, in addition to Matthew Stafford going scoreless in two of those three games. While their defense has stepped up lately, it still isn't up to par with the league's best. The Rams are in the bottom half of the league in terms of passing and rushing yards allowed. That won't fare well against a run-happy Commanders unit that averages 156.6 yards per game on the ground.
All in all, the best thing that Commanders fans can do right now is hope for a win over the Cowboys on Sunday to lock up that sixth seed.
