Commanders RB Could Help Reset Market With Potential $30 Million Contract

There’s a chance Washington Commanders running back Brian Robinson Jr. can become one of the NFL’s highest-paid running backs following the 2024 season. It probably won’t happen if he can’t get back on the field.

Robinson has missed 3 games this season, including 2 of the 3 losses for the Commanders after they dropped to 7-3 with a loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 10. If he can’t get healthy and find out a way to fix his nagging hamstring injury, it could have a big impact on what happens in the offseason, when he’s eligible for his first contract extension.

Spotrac’s Michael Ginnitti listed Robinson among his list of NFL running backs who could potential “market resetters” in the offseason.

“James Conner, Najee Harris, Aaron Jones, & JK Dobbins lead the pending free agent class, while Kyren Williams, Brian Robinson, & Kenneth Walker can be considered early extension candidates,” Ginnitti wrote on November 12.

Robinson was a third round pick by the Commanders (No. 98 overall) out of Alabama in the 2022 NFL draft and has proven himself to be one of the NFL’s most versatile — and toughest — running backs in his first 3 seasons.

Robinson’s Path to NFL Stardom Took Detour

Robinson won 2 College Football Playoff national championships at Alabama as part of a stacked running backs room with future NFL stars Najee Harris and Josh Jacobs. When Robinson finally got his chance as the featured running back in 2021, he turned in an All-SEC season with 1,343 rushing yards and 7 total touchdowns.

Robinson’s NFL career almost never even got started when he was shot in the knee and the glute during an armed robbery attempt on August 28, 2022, but suffered no major structural damage. He missed the team’s first 4 games before returning to rush for 797 yards and score 3 total touchdowns in 12 games.

In 2023, Robinson showed he had what it took to be one of the NFL’s best on one of the NFL’s worst teams, putting up 1,101 yards of total offense and 9 total touchdowns.

Robinson has gotten off to a rocking start in 2024 and has 461 rushing yards and 6 touchdowns through 7 games while averaging a career-high 4.6 yards per carry. Maybe just as important, Robinson is holding onto the ball — he had a career-high 4 fumbles in 2023.

Breaking Down Possible Contract for Robinson

There’s been a lot of discussion as to how much NFL running backs should be paid — they’re overwhelmingly behind the other skill positions in terms of average annual salary.

While quarterbacks are topping out at $60 million per season and wide receivers topping out at $35 million per year, running backs are topped out at the $19 million per season being paid to San Francisco 49ers superstar and 2023 NFL Offensive Player of the Year Christian McCaffrey.

Bleacher Report’s Kristopher Knox didn’t have a single running back listed among his Top 30 NFL free agents for 2025 following the NFL trade deadline.

Using that information and a highly deductive form of math when it comes to contracts, it’s not outside the realm of possibility to expect the Commanders to offer Robinson an early extension more in the range of a 3-year deal worth between $27 million and $30 million with possibly $15 million to $20 million in guaranteed money.

That’ a contract that would, at least, put Robinson among the Top 10 highest paid running backs in the NFL.