Conventional fantasy football draft wisdom shouldn’t apply to Saquon Barkley

By the second half of the 2024 regular season, it was no secret. The Philadelphia Eagles were going to feed Saquon Barkley the football and dare opposing defenses to stop them.

Thanks to Barkley’s special skills — and an offensive line built like snow plows — Philly’s run game often had its way. The Eagles repeatedly carved up teams like the Commanders and Rams, for example, to the point where it didn’t really matter if the defense knew what was coming. 

The big question for Philly’s coaching staff, and millions of fantasy football enthusiasts across the country, is how to approach Barkley’s upcoming encore season. Barkley had never handled more than 300 carries in a season over his six-year career with the Giants. In his dominant debut season with the Eagles, he got the ball 436 times (including the playoffs) for 2,504 total yards in the run game alone.

So should fantasy managers bank on Barkley coming close to (or even exceeding?) those numbers in 2025? Fantasy football is all about value, and there are some key factors to consider before double-clicking Barkley over young, ascending superstars like Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs.

Barkley labeled as OVERVALUED at current ADP by NFL.com 

According to fantasy analyst Marcas Grant, Barkley is a hard pass in the top three picks of redraft leagues this year:

“When I proclaimed early in the spring on the NFL Fantasy Podcast that I wouldn’t be drafting Barkley at cost in 2025, I thought of it as a hot take. Now that we’ve moved into July, it seems to be an argument that has gained a lot of steam. I’d like to credit myself with starting a movement. I mean ... I didn’t. But I’d still like to credit myself with it. Call it Beware the Magical Season. Call it The Curse of 370. I like to call it The 2K Conundrum. Before Barkley’s blow-up 2024 season, eight players had rushed for 2,000 in a single season. The following year, those players averaged 966 fewer rushing yards. Only two of the eight reached 1,300 rushing yards the next season. A 1,200-rushing yard season from Barkley wouldn’t be a terrible thing. But it wouldn’t be worthy of a top-three fantasy pick.”  

The history here speaks for itself. It’s rare for running backs to approach 2,000 yards in the first place. It’s unprecedented for a back to do it in consecutive years.

With all that said, fantasy managers can pass on Barkley early in drafts at their own risk this summer. All we can follow right now are the tea leaves, and all signs point to another monster season loading for Philly’s workhorse back.

Why to buy Sarquon Barkley’s fantasy football value in 2025

Let’s start with Barkley’s record contract extension this offseason.

The Eagles had already spent at the top of the running back market to lure Barkley away from the Giants in 2024 free agency. Handing him a monster contract extension less than 12 months later was an unprecedented move in itself. Barkley’s now the first running back in NFL history to make more than $20 million per year.

You could argue that general manager Howie Roseman was simply doing one of his best players a solid, rewarding him for his historic season. You could also argue that Barkley’s extension came with a message: If we’re getting you the rock 400-plus times per season, you deserve to be compensated for it.

Philly’s cost-conscious approach with outside free agents this spring was telling. At running back, the Eagles did little outside of replacing Kenneth Gainwell with former Packers bruiser A.J. Dillon (who's no lock to make the 53-man roster, by the way). No matter how you feel about Will Shipley entering his sophomore season, the Eagles added zero competition for Barkley’s touches in the run game.

The same can be said for the passing game. While we should expect Philly to pass the football more than their league-low 448 attempts last regular season, the only real WR competition at training camp has come on the fringes of the roster, with guys like Elijah Cooks and Darius Cooper pushing the likes of 2024 draft picks Johnny Wilson and Ainias Smith.

Unless you love the trajectory of Terrace Marshall Jr. (who was looking pretty good before an unfortunate camp injury), the pass-catching group remains unchanged entering 2025. It will run through A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith at wide receiver, Dallas Goedert at tight end and Barkley out of the backfield.

The fun part about fantasy is everything’s subjective. If you love Gibbs — or believe in the vaunted Madden Curse — by all means, pass on Barkley in your draft. But "SaQuads" definitely deserves consideration inside the top three overall picks, and he’s almost automatic if he slips to pick No. 4 or beyond.