The Yankees face a significant decision by Sunday night regarding Gerrit Cole’s opt-out clause. Built into his nine-year, $324 million contract signed in 2020, the clause allows Cole to opt-out after his fifth season, effectively forcing the Yankees to commit an additional $36 million to extend the deal through 2029.
When Cole signed, he was 29, but now, at 34, he is testing the Yankees’ willingness to secure his services further into his career. By adding a year and ensuring a $36 million payout in 2029, the Yankees can keep one of their star pitchers. However, they may also explore options to defer some of his contract’s value, allowing them to free up payroll in the short term—a move that would help finance an extension for Juan Soto and potential offseason additions.
Could the Yankees Move on From Cole?
Though the Yankees are likely to retain Cole, is there a scenario where they decide to let him walk?
Cole pitched just 95 innings this past season—his lowest workload outside of the shortened 2020 season. This decrease is seen by some as a sign that age and injury concerns are starting to creep in. In spring training, he suffered an elbow flexor strain in his throwing arm, which kept him sidelined for months.
Nevertheless, Cole demonstrated his elite ability with a 2.17 ERA over 29 postseason innings, although his strikeout rate has dipped over the past two seasons. Despite this, he won the Cy Young Award in 2023, proving his value even with declining strikeout numbers. If age and regression are a concern, the Yankees might consider the risk of injury as they weigh this significant financial commitment.
The Value of Keeping Cole Long-Term
Adding five more years to Cole’s contract will inevitably come with some regression, but he has proven he can adapt effectively. His velocity has slightly decreased, from 96.8 mph in 2023 to 95.9 mph this year, likely due to his injury. How he performs in 2025 could better indicate whether age is truly impacting his overall effectiveness.
Cole’s legacy in New York adds to his value. He has become one of the most prominent pitchers in Yankees history, a fan favorite and one of the game’s best pitchers. Opting to let him go would mean replacing him with a similarly high-caliber pitcher, such as Corbin Burnes. However, moving on from Cole could face backlash from fans who view him as a core piece of the team’s identity.
Likely Outcome: Cole Stays in the Bronx
All signs point to the Yankees picking up the option to keep Cole for another five years. Given his track record, this long-term investment might seem manageable by the end of his deal, especially as the team develops promising young arms who could eventually take on more prominent roles.
While Cole’s slight regression and increased risk of injury are factors to consider, his track record of excellence and commitment to the Yankees make him deserving of a continued place in New York. The Yankees’ front office is likely on the same page, though they must carefully weigh how this decision impacts their financial flexibility and other roster-building goals.
Ultimately, securing Cole would allow him to potentially finish his career as a Yankee, a fitting conclusion for one of the team’s most impactful players in recent years. Although alternative options, such as spreading out his contract or investing in a younger arm like Burnes, are on the table, keeping Cole allows the Yankees to retain a trusted leader and a foundational piece in their pursuit of a championship.
