The Dallas Cowboys may have won 12 games in each of the past three seasons, but they’re 1-3 in opening games under head coach Mike McCarthy. They’re also slight underdogs against the Browns in Week 1 thanks to Cleveland’s impressive defense.
Sunday’s Browns-Cowboys game may be the week’s most intriguing. Both teams made the playoffs in 2023, both will be without their leading rusher from last year. Both also feature units considered among the NFL’s best.
No team scored more points per game (29.9) than Dallas last season. No quarterback threw more touchdowns than the Cowboys’ Dak Prescott and no wide receiver had more receptions (135) than the team’s CeeDee Lamb. Ordinarily, stats like that would be enough to avoid the underdog label, but against Cleveland, those numbers hold less weight.
The Cowboys offense ranked fifth with an average of 371.6 yards per game in 2023, but the Browns defense allowed a league-low 270.2 yards per game last season. Dallas ranked third in passing yards with 258.6 per contest, but Cleveland gave up a league-low 164.7 yards through the air last year.
If the Browns have a weakness, it could be their 11th-ranked run defense. Cleveland allowed an average of 105.5 yards per game to ball-carriers in 2023. Of course, no one expects the Cowboys run game to do much with 29-year-old Ezekiel Elliott returning after a forgettable year in New England to potentially be the team’s lead back.
Unlike Dallas, which will be without cornerback DaRon Bland for at least six weeks, Browns defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz gets to run it back in 2024 with players like All-Pro defensive end Myles Garrett and defensive backs Martin Emerson Jr. and Denzel Ward.
All three were critical to the team’s success in 2023 and according to data from The 33rd Team, are among the league leaders in at least one metric.
EPA (Expected Points Added) per drive is a stat used to determine how well a team performs relative to expectation. The closer an offense gets to the end zone, the higher the EPA goes up. In other words, defensive players can prevent EPA by stopping the offense from scoring points on any given drive.
According to the site, Emerson, Garrett and Ward all had EPA scores in the top 15 last season. That and 49 sacks (15 more than the year before) helped the Browns make their second playoff appearance since 2003 last season.
In other words, the Cowboys will have their hands full when they travel to Cleveland Browns Stadium this weekend.
