The Dallas Cowboys didn’t have the greatest running game in 2024, which could be a prime opportunity for a new running back to rebuild his career.
Former Denver Broncos running back Javonte Williams signed with the Cowboys this offseason with hopes to jumpstart his career. Williams had 903 yards rushing as a rookie in 2021, but he hasn’t met that mark since, and the Cowboys have a need a running back after Rico Dowdle left for the Carolina Panthers.
ESPN’s Bill Barnwell sees the match between Williams and the Cowboys as far from perfect despite the mutual need. In addition, it could go much poorer than Cowboys fans would anticipate as Barnwell projects.
“Only $1 million of Williams’ $3 million is guaranteed, so there’s a slim-but-plausible chance he doesn’t even make the active roster in Week 1,” Barnwell wrote. “I would say it’s likely Williams gets there, but that we see him strictly in a rotational role. He’s not likely to reach Dowdle’s heights in workload or production.”
Last season, Dowdle rushed for 1,079 yards and two touchdowns on 235 carries. Williams had 513 yards and four touchdowns on 139 carries for the Broncos in 2024.
Why the Cowboys Chose Javonte Williams
Getty| Javonte Williams had mixed results in Denver amid a 2023 injury.
Barnwell begged the question why the Cowboys would choose Williams to replace Dowdle, given the history. Williams had a 3.7 yards per attempt career average last season, and he had a significant knee injury two years ago as Barnwell noted.
“There’s a case that he is a more complete back given his body of work as a receiver and pass blocker,” Barnwell wrote. “Dallas didn’t necessarily trust Dowdle with pass blocking until the second half of last season, when they named him the full-time starter.”
“Dallas’ biggest problem on offense last season was in the red zone, where it ranked 31st in conversion rate,” Barnwell added. “I’m not sure Williams really helps there, as he generated minus-7 FDOE over the past two years. Since 2021, the only back with at least 600 carries to post a worse success rate than Williams is [Najee] Harris.”
“Williams is saying all the right things this offseason about recovering from his injury and being at his best, but he was league-average before the ACL tear and hasn’t reached that level since,” Barnwell concluded.
Cowboys Going the Post-Ezekiel Elliott Contract Route Again
The Cowboys are sticking with a trend that started after Ezekiel Elliott’s release in 2023. Dallas gave Elliott a six-year, $90 million deal in 2019, and his early-career excellence didn’t last.
Elliott played the 2023 season with the New England Patriots followed by a return to Dallas on a one-year, $2 million deal before a 2025 release to find a playoff team. As Barnwell noted, the Cowboys “clearly don’t want to spend a ton at running back” at this time.
“For all the problems they had in 2024, that strategy actually worked. Rico Dowdle was perfectly reasonable in the lead role, posting above-average efficiencies in yards over expectation, EPA per rush and success rate,” Barnwell wrote. “A 1,079-yard season for $1.3 million was great value for Dallas.”
Now, Williams will try prove the Cowboys correct in that strategy again.
