The Chicago Cubs dropped their second consecutive game against the Cleveland Guardians in a 2-1 loss on Tuesday night. Following the game, the Cubs have fallen to a 59-62 record, which drops them to fourth in the National League Central.
Most teams in their position would give up on the season, but Cubs manager Craig Counsell has managed to keep hope alive.
Despite their recent losses against the Guardians, the Cubs have been on a hot streak. Chicago has gone on two three-game winning streaks while posting a 7-3 record in August. The Cubs have posted a .748 OPS with a 109 wRC+ since July 4, both of which were sixth-best in the NL during that span. The Cubs also lead the NL with a 2.98 ERA and 1.69 ERA from the bullpen in that span.
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Yet, despite the recent success, Counsell's postseason dreams seem a bit unrealistic. The Cubs have just a 5.3 percent chance of reaching the postseason, according to FanGraphs.
Chicago has 31 games against teams with a losing record throughout the rest of the season, according to MLB reporter Jordan Bastian. That gives them the easiest path to success among the teams ahead of them in the race for the third and final NL Wild Card spot, but Chicago's performance in the past several months will likely come back to haunt them.
The Cubs dug themselves into a hole in May and June. After beginning the season with a 26-22 record, things began to fall apart when the Cubs began a five-game losing streak against the Atlanta Braves in late May. The Cubs posted a 12-26 record from May 22 to July 3 — a winning percentage of just .315.
FanGraphs gave the Cubs a 4.9 percent chance of making the postseason following that awful stretch, and that figure dropped to a season-low 3.5 percent on July 30.
While Chicago is just three games behind the Atlanta Braves for the third NL Wild Card spot, they have no more games against the six teams ahead of them in the race. The Cubs posted losing records against all of those teams except the Arizona Diamondbacks, which gives five of the six teams the tiebreaker over the Cubs.
At this stage, it's becoming clearer that the team's fate was sealed long before their recent winning streak began.
