It's unclear which direction the Chicago Cubs plan to take this offseason. Jed Hoyer made it clear the Cubs were building toward the future at the trade deadline, only to trade his best asset in Christopher Morel. So, the Cubs are in opportunity mode, as Hoyer might phrase it, looking to take whatever deal is best.
Craig Counsell has made it clear that he expects more than 83 wins moving forward. We can blame a lot of Chicago's shortcomings on Counsell, but MLB's highest-paid manager does have justifiable gripes on the personnel front. The Cubs need more power in the heart of that lineup, especially if Dansby Swanson and Isaac Paredes just can't hit at Wrigley Field.
The biggest offseason question mark looming over this franchise is the contract option of Cody Bellinger. He can opt in for $27.5 million, or he can opt out in search of a more stable long-term deal. The market for Bellinger's services was rather muted last time around, but Scott Boras has a track record of drumming up interest in his clients, and Bellinger was good enough last season to quell concerns about a 2020-esque drop-off.
That's not to say Bellinger's campaign was flawless — his slugging numbers plummeted and he once again dealt with his share of nicks and bruises — but it was enough to justify testing the market if he so desires. The Cubs aren't the only team in need of quality outfield bats.
So, with that in mind, the Cubs need a backup plan. According to Kerry Miller of Bleacher Report, that backup plan could meaningfully elevate Chicago's sleepy offense.
"The Cubs probably won't get that carried away, especially if Cody Bellinger returns on his $27.5M player option. If he leaves, though, they'll be very much in the mix for Pete Alonso at around $200M."
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This isn't a one-for-one replacement — Bellinger spent most of last season in the outfield — but it does qualify as a potential upgrade on offense. Alonso is not as consistent as Bellinger in the bat-to-ball department, but he's going to draw walks and change how pitchers approach this Cubs lineup. And, more importantly, he's going to slug, perhaps as well as anybody in baseball.
The Cubs need a proper power source in the heart of that lineup. Michael Busch made strides last season, so the Cubs could be kneecapping their best young player to bring in Alonso, but certain bats are worth the risk. Busch has experience at third base. Perhaps the Cubs can move Paredes around the infield a bit, or try to flip Busch to the outfield. Whatever it takes, odds are Alonso is worth it.
Now, is Alonso worth it for six-plus years and $200 million... maybe not. First basemen don't always age with grace. Alonso's defensive value is muted as is and it won't get better moving forward. That said, so long as he's cranking 30-40 home runs and driving in 80-100 runs, Cubs fans won't find too much reason to complain.
Alonso did a lot to raise his value in the postseason, coming up with several clutch hits during the New York Mets' storybook run to the NLCS. The Cubs want to reach that level, and knowing that Alonso can elevate his performance in the clutch should alleviate concerns in the front office.
The odds seem to favor Bellinger opting in and sticking with Chicago, but if the former MVP bolts a few months from now, don't be shocked if the Cubs are motivated enough to rip Alonso away from the Mets. New York could be preoccupied running up the tab on Juan Soto.
