The Chicago Cubs are entering the offseason with several questions about how to improve on a roster that went 83-79 for the second consecutive year, losing the division to the Milwaukee Brewers and not making the playoffs as a Wild Card team.
But before they can figure out what free agents to target on the open market, they've got to determine what it's going to take to keep their current roster together.
That amount could be high.
Per MLB Trade Rumors, the Cubs have an NL-high 14 players in arbitration this offseason, meaning that final payroll figures for the 2025 squad might not be decided until after hearings finish in January.
Only the Baltimore Orioles, with 15 players in arbitration, have more across MLB than Chicago.
Both the sheer number of arbitration-eligible players and the potential salary awards have caused some confusion about what the Cubs roster will come in for next season, potentially hindering the team from being able to clearly project what free agents are in their price range.
Two players are expected to earn over $6 million in 2025, with third baseman Isaac Paredes leading the team at $6.9 million and 2023 Cy Young finalist Justin Steele right behind him at $6.4 million.
Four other players are expected to receive over $2 million in the quartet of outfielder Mike Tauchman ($2.9M), catcher Christian Bethancourt ($2.5M), and relievers Yency Almonte ($2.2M), and Adbert Alzolay ($2.3M).
Chicago has options with each of the 14 players - they can be non-tendered, potentially returning on a guaranteed or minor-league deal, or they can be signed to extensions that give the team some cost certainty in future years.
That's what happened with Nico Hoerner, a first-time arbitration-eligible in 2023 who signed a $2.5 million contract for the 2023 season and then inked a three-year, $35 million extension just three months later.
Complicating their decisions, however, is the potential opt-out of Cody Bellinger.
The veteran outfielder led the Cubs with a $27.5 million cash salary in 2024 and can choose to return for 2025 at that same salary, or opt-out and re-enter free agency this winter.
There are no public indications from Bellinger or his representation as to what he might do, but it's unlikely that a .266 hitter with a .751 OPS and 18 homers is likely to receive a larger deal on the open market than what he could get by opting-in.
His decision is due five days after the conclusion of the 2024 World Series.
Chicago has until mid-January to agree to contracts with their extension-eligible players or issue a salary figure for the February arbitration hearing.
Like several teams in MLB, the Cubs have embraced the growing trend of "file and trial", refusing to negotiate a contract after the arbitration figure date and ministering it like a hard deadline.
It could take until the end of February for Chicago to complete all of their hearings and know exactly what their salary commitments will be for 2025.
