The Chicago Cubs’ long dry spell may have already eliminated any realistic playoff hopes for the team.
Cubs Playoff Hopes Dwindling Fast
Under Water Everywhere
At the midway point of the season, the Cubs find themselves dead last among teams still with a chance at the postseason. The team is just four games back of St. Louis Cardinals and San Diego Padres who are locked in a virtual tie for the last two postseason slots. But to secure a spot, the Cubs will have to pass seven other ball clubs before season’s end. And everywhere you look, the situation is bleak.
A Divisional Also Ran
Having played seven of their 13 games in the division (still having a make-up game with the St. Louis Cardinals), the Cubs have a losing record against every team in the National League Central. They are 10 1/2 games back of the division-leading Milwaukee Brewers, who hold a 4-3 series record against the Cubs so far. The Pittsburgh Pirates have won four out of seven, the Cincinnati Reds five out of seven, and the Cardinals five out of six.
Where the Cubs’ futility is concerned it appears the numbers don’t lie. Within the division, they are next to last in slugging and OPS, and dead last in home runs. The most troubling stat is OBP, where they rank second, an indication of the team’s inability to hit with runners in scoring position.
Of their NL Central rivals, the Cardinals look like they might be the second-best team at the moment. The Cubs would have to win six out of seven of their remaining games against the Cardinals to have the edge in a tiebreaker. That alone is a strike against the Cubs’ playoff hopes.
Bleak Record Against Contenders
Of the remaining teams contending for the postseason in the NL, only the Arizona Diamondbacks have a losing record against Chicago. The Padres, Atlanta Braves, New York Mets, and San Francisco Giants all hold series leads. The Cubs have yet to play the Washington Nationals this season.
While it’s been improving of late, defense has been a problem this season. The Cubs currently rank in the bottom third in the league in fielding percentage (.994). On top of that, their much-hyped defensive middle infield from a year ago has produced only 42 double plays – next to last in MLB. And while they’re in the middle of the road in errors (44), they rank near the bottom in assists (638).
It’s still early, but when you add it all up, the Cubs are not in a great position to get back to postseason play for the first time since 2018. To do that they’ll need a combination of improved offensive production, a little luck, and maybe a roster addition or two.
A Superstar Needs to Be A Superstar
While overall payroll doesn’t always (or even often) correlate to World Series victories, most teams win because their great players play at their best. In the bizarre game of baseball, superstars come and go, often in the form of the same player.
Cody Bellinger finds himself in that category. As the 2019 NL MVP, he was touted as one of the best players in baseball ranking second in runs (121), slugging (.629), and OPS (1.035). Bellinger finished first in total bases (351) and third in home runs (47) that season.
But Bellinger struggled through the pandemic and only found his form again last season, slashing .307/.356/.525. After re-signing in the offseason, he struggled through the first half of this season after his return from the injured list. Lately, he has found his form again, slashing .417/.500/.458 in his last seven games. If that trend continues and he adds some power to his bat, Bellinger will be back to his expected position as one of the best players in the game. And the Cubs will need a superstar.
Another Star Might Shine
There is a possibility that another superstar could emerge in the form of Seiya Suzuki. The 29-year-old right-fielder missed a third of the season with an injury but has the ability to step into the limelight. Although he’s been struggling of late, Suzuki is slashing .263/.338/.435 overall in 2024. But the more he plays the better he seems to perform.
If he remains healthy, Suzuki might get back to the form that saw him slash .285/.357/.485 with 20 HR and 74 RBI in 138 games last season. If he improves on those numbers he may well be worthy of recognition as one of the stars of the NL. As with Bellinger, this would help the Cubs’ chances of advancing to the postseason.
The Forecast is Up in the Air
With the right leadership, the offense could improve to a level that can compete with the rest of the league. But that’s a pretty tall order given the current state of the lineup. Dansby Swanson has been swinging a hot bat over the past seven games, but Nico Hoerner has been in a prolonged slump, slashing just .202/.291/.231 over his last 30 games. Catcher Miguel Amaya and center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong are still figuring out how to hit big-league pitching.
Despite this, the Cubs could find their way to a Wild Card berth on the backs of their starting pitching. The Cubs staff ranks seventh in the NL with a team 3.96 ERA. With a healthy Justin Steele and a revived Kyle Hendricks, the Cubs rotation is intact and in form for the first time all season.
That won’t be enough without help from a healthy and revitalized bullpen. With Mark Leiter Jr. joining Adbert Alzolay and Julian Merryweather on the injured list the Cubs are without their three go-to weapons from last season. The Cubs bullpen has been racked by injuries all season, and it’s put a strain on a team that’s struggling to score runs.
The club could decide to make a trade before the July 31 trade deadline. New faces in the clubhouse can breathe new life into a team that’s been down. But at this point, it isn’t clear whether anything can save the Cubs’ playoff hopes.
