The first year of manager Craig Counsell’s tenure with the Chicago Cubs didn’t go according to plan. His club finished 2024 with an 83-79 record, missing the playoffs for the fourth straight season. Could Chicago bolster its 2025 rotation by making a big free-agent splash for starting pitcher Corbin Burnes?
Bleacher Report’s Erik Beaston shared fresh predictions for a handful of players on October 4. He’s predicting Burnes will head to the Windy City and reunite with his old manager.
“The Orioles under Mike Elias have never offered a free agent a multi-year contract. It would seem rather unlikely, even with new ownership in David Rubenstein, that a trend dating back to 2018 suddenly changes,” he said. “Meanwhile, Burnes’ former manager Craig Counsell, for whom he had his best season professionally in 2021, will be looking for another ace out in Chicago with the Cubs. Such a move would be a statement one and, with Shōta Imanaga, Burnes would prove the Cubbies with a one-two punch that would rank among the strongest in the league.”
It wouldn’t be outrageous to see Baltimore offer Burnes a multi-year deal. But would they go to the levels the Scott Boras client might be looking for in his next contract? Spotrac is projecting a six-year, $180 million pact for the ace.
Corbin Burnes Would Give the Cubs a Dominant Frontend of the Rotation
The Orioles landed Burnes in a February trade with the Milwaukee Brewers to install an ace at the top of their rotation. That’s exactly what the soon-to-be 30-year-old provided. Burnes surpassed the 190-inning plateau for the third straight year, posting a 15-9 record with a 2.92 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 181 strikeouts.
Burnes, the 2021 National League Cy Young Award winner, has been among the game’s most dominant pitchers since 2020. He’s posted a 2.88 ERA over his last 816.2 innings pitched. His 21.7 WAR during this time is second-best among qualified starting pitchers, per FanGraphs.
Pairing him with Shōta Imanaga would give Chicago a terrific one-two punch at the top of its rotation. He posted a 2.91 ERA and 1.02 WHIP with a 15-3 record over 173.1 innings during his first big-league season in 2024. Let’s not forget about Justin Steele, though.
The 29-year-old was limited to 24 starts this past season but still posted a 3.07 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. This was his third straight year with a sub-3.20 ERA. Having these three leading the Cubs’ rotation in 2025 would take pressure off the fourth and fifth starters, as well as the bullpen.
Could the Cubs Afford Making a Big Splash for Corbin Burnes?
While Spotrac is projecting a $180 million deal for Burnes, one can assume Boras will initially aim for more. Bleacher Report’s Zachary D. Rymer predicted on August 1 that the right-hander would land an eight-year, $288 million contract. Before the season started, Tim Britton of The Athletic valued a potential extension at eight years and $260 million. As the top free-agent hurler this winter, the starting pitcher market probably won’t move much until he signs.
According to Spotrac, the Cubs’ 2024 adjusted payroll total was $230 million. Without accounting for arbitration-eligible and pre-arbitration players, their 2025 payroll is currently $155 million. That could go down even more in the coming weeks, though.
Reliever Drew Smyly has a $10 million mutual option with a $2.5 million buyout for next season. Infielder David Bote has a $7 million club option with a $1 million buyout. However, the biggest potential payroll domino that could fall is Cody Bellinger’s $27.5 million player option.
The Cubs already have payroll flexibility heading into next year. But if one or more of the above player salaries also comes off the books, it makes affording a big splash for Burnes even more possible.
