The Chicago Cubs once again struggled relative to lofty expectations, even after prying Craig Counsell away from the division champion Milwaukee Brewers in the highest-profile managerial signing of the last several years. Counsell was given historic amounts of dough to lead Chicago to another 83-win season. That's two straight. You can't knock the consistency.
At some point, Chicago needs to break through this barrier. The Cubs ostensibly had a good offseason the last time around, re-upping Cody Bellinger, signing Shota Imanaga for a bargain price, and adding a high-profile reliever in Hector Neris. Jed Hoyer has never been one to spend top-dollar in free agency, but he's not afraid to pour resources into improving the roster. He just needs to pick the right resources.
Hoyer's track record is decidedly mixed at this point. A great example — Imanaga was stupendous out of the gate, but Hector Neris tanked the bullpen until Chicago was forced to cut ties. The Cubs aren't going to splurge for Juan Soto or Corbin Burnes, so Hoyer will need to hammer the mid-tier market this winter in search of the right upgrades.
Chicago's primary issues reside on offense. With Dansby Swanson and Isaac Paredes woefully underperforming at prime infield positions, the Cubs need to add power to the middle of their lineup. Bellinger's slugging numbers receded in 2024 and Chicago dealt away arguably its best power bat in Christopher Morel at the trade deadline.
There are several viable sluggers available in free agency, but Chicago needs to be smart. Every move has consequences, and one free agent connected to the Cubs would be a disaster.
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Bleacher Report's Erik Beaston predicts that former St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Paul Goldschmidt will end up in Chicago this offseason. It's a bold proposition, and an extremely juicy one considering the contentious relationship between those fanbases. St. Louis folks do not like Chicago, and watching a beloved vet go to the Cubs is sure to generate strong reactions.
That said, the explanation for Chicago's interest in Goldy doesn't quite measure up to reality.
"Still, [Paul Goldschmidt] has enough left in the tank to garner the attention of teams this offseason," writes Beaston (h/t Cubbies Crib). "One such team is the rival Chicago Cubs, who will look to improve at first base, where Michael Busch had similar stats but lacks the veteran leadership and experience that Goldschmidt would bring to the organization."
Goldschmidt would add power to the middle of the Cubs lineup, but to what extent? The 2022 National League MVP has experienced a steep decline in production in recent years. Goldschmidt slashed .245/.302/.414 with 22 home runs in 599 ABs this season, posting a hard-hit rate (49.6) in the 92nd percentile. That last number is extremely encouraging, but the 37-year-old is coaxing fewer over the fence than he used to, and his strikeout numbers are trending in the wrong direction.
Meanwhile, 26-year-old Michael Busch slashed .248/.335/.440 with 21 home runs in more than 100 fewer ABs than Goldschmidt. He may not rack up as much hard contact as Goldy, but Busch is still improving, he walks more often, and he's more effective with his glove.
Even if you're of the opinion that Goldschmidt is a better hitter right now, the margin is razor-thin and their career arcs are trending in opposite directions. Odds are Busch is unequivocally better than Goldschmidt sooner than later, so why would the Cubs take the plunge on the 11-year-older veteran? Even if it's for a single season.
Busch has some experience at third base, but the Cubs just planted Isaac Paredes there for the foreseeable future. The outfield belongs to Cody Bellinger, Pete Crow-Armstrong, and Ian Happ. Seiya Suzuki commands DH reps. The Cubs would essentially be benching Busch for Goldschmidt, quite possibly a worse player, just because the latter is a bigger name.
Chicago needs to spend its money elsewhere. Goldschmidt is a marginal improvement at best over a short period of time. The Cubs need to be looking for more sustainable solutions to their current shortcomings, not getting in the way of quite possibly their best young bat as he takes the next step in his MLB upbringing.
