The Los Angeles Dodgers are putting the finishing touches on their 11th division title in 12 years. The addition of Shohei Ohtani has sparked their lineup to another great season. The two-way player has not pitched this year but created the 50 home run, 50 stolen base club. Despite that, there is still a worst-case scenario for the Dodgers in the playoffs.
Last year, they were swept by the Arizona Diamondbacks in the National League Division Series. The Snakes rolled that momentum into a World Series appearance and are set to make another run this year. While Arizona has struggled in recent weeks, they still provide a tough matchup for the Dodgers.
Just facing the Diamondbacks is not the worst-case scenario, however. The Brewers entered Sunday's action X games behind the Dodgers for the number-two seed in the National League. Playing the Wild Card series ended up benefitting three of the four winners last year, but it does not mean this Dodgers team wants to be there.
At the trade deadline, the Dodgers added Jack Flaherty from the Tigers to bolster their rotation. This was a necessary move because of injuries that have crushed their rotation. Tyler Glasnow is “highly unlikely” to return this season, according to manager Dave Roberts. Clayton Kershaw, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Walker Buehler have all missed time this season as well. The Dodgers need to get the bye and rest their rotation.
For the Dodgers to have the best chance to win the World Series, they must hold off the Brewers and clinch one of the top two seeds. The secondary goal should be to avoid the Diamondbacks as long as possible.
How do the Dodgers matchups against potential NLDS opponents?
The playoffs are not re-seeded after the Wild Card, so it is easy to project which opponent the top two teams will face. The number three seed will face the number six seed, with the winner playing the two seeds. Whoever the top team is will face the four vs. five match-up winner.
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Fangraphs gives the Dodgers an 89% chance of getting the bye, so their worst-case scenario is likely avoided. They are tied with the Phillies for the top seed in the National League. They should aim for the two seed to avoid the Diamondbacks in the NLDS. Arizona has two spaces open in the 4/5 series and just one in the 3/6 matchup. If they turn it back up in the final week, they will power out of the six-seed and face the Phillies if they advance.
The Padres gave the Dodgers a run for their money this season. San Diego took the season series 7-3 and has a great chance to be the Diamondbacks of this year. If any Wild Card team made a run, it would be the least surprising if the Padres won the pennant. The best-case scenario for the Dodgers is if the Padres and Diamondbacks play each other.
The Mets have sprinted toward the finish line to shake up the National League Wild Card. For months, it appeared that the Padres vs Diamondbacks in the four v five matchup was penciled in. Now, the Mets have risen and the Diamondbacks have fallen, leaving massive questions about the Wild Card series.
