MLB players voted Jazz Chisholm Jr. as the most overrated player in Major League Baseball, but the Yankees’ third baseman doesn’t crack the list that ESPN’s Bradford Doolittle compiled in a story that ran on August 19. The Los Angeles Dodgers’ Teoscar Hernandez, however, is on that list.
At first glance, it may not be clear why. The LA outfielder has hit 26 home runs this year with a .265 average and 129 OPS+. He has made himself indispensable on a Dodgers team that has endured injuries throughout the roster, playing in more games than anyone and producing at an All-Star level.
But according to the formula Doolittle used, Hernandez is overrated.
As Doolittle explains, he measured combined WAR figures for position players over the past four seasons and compared those numbers to the past four rounds of Phase I fan balloting for the All-Star Game and the players’ placement in postseason MVP balloting. Hernandez had one of the biggest disparities between WAR and recognition.
“Hernandez’s presence was a bit of a surprise for me, mostly because I hadn’t really noticed he’s a popular pick in All-Star balloting,” Doolittle explained. “He has produced 11.9 bWAR since 2021, a solid total but not star-level. Yet his rankings in the past four rounds of Phase I fan balloting at his position have been: sixth, sixth, 19th and, most recently, third.”
Teoscar Hernandez Has Helped Keep the Dodgers Afloat Through Injuries
On paper, the Dodgers should be running away with the National League West with one of the most imposing rosters baseball has seen in the last decade. Injuries, however, have kept the Dodgers from putting much distance between themselves and the second-place San Diego Padres.
Though their pitching staff has gotten most of the attention for its horrid injury luck, the Dodgers’ lineup hasn’t fared much better. Mookie Betts and Miguel Rojas both missed extended time with injuries and both returned to the lineup in the past week or so. Max Muncy remains on the Injured List with Tommy Edman, who has yet to play a game with the Dodgers since the team traded for him. Both should be back in the coming days, though now Freddie Freeman is day-to-day with a finger injury.
Through it all, Hernandez has continued to produce. The 2024 Home Run Derby winner has turned it on since the All-Star break, hitting .280 with 7 home runs in 27 games. Going into the Dodgers’ weekend series against the St. Louis Cardinals, Hernandez had played in all but two games for LA this season. He finally got a well-deserved break on Saturday to reset amid a mini-slump (2-20 in his previous five games).
Teoscar Hernandez Nears Free Agency
While one formula shows Hernandez is overrated, his Spotrac valuation says otherwise. Though it’s far from perfect, the site projects his market value at $24.3 million. That’s even a touch higher than the $23.5 million he’s making from the Dodgers this season.
With Hernandez an upcoming free agent, it’s possible to start projecting what his next contract could look like. Spotrac projects him to be worth three years and $72,960,207. That type of deal would take him through his age 34 season.
That would also make him one of the more expensive outfielders on the market. The Dodgers have never hesitated to pay up, so if they want to keep Hernandez around, money alone won’t prevent that.
What could prevent that, however, is another available outfielder. As good as Hernandez has been, he’s not Juan Soto. The Yankees are expected to do everything they can to keep Soto in the Bronx next year, but the Dodgers are one of the few teams that could match (or even out-bid) them for his services.
Even if it’s not with the Dodgers, however, Hernandez will play somewhere next year and make good money doing it. Even in his 30s, he has played 130 games or more each of the last three full seasons. Barring injury, he will pass that mark again this year. He has been a reliable player with some pop in his bat, hitting at least 25 home runs every year since 2021.
Overrated or not, he has set himself up well.
