If one team is not going to win the Super Bowl next year, it has to be the New England Patriots. Although they have done more things right than wrong this offseason, the combination of Jerod Mayo being a first-time head, having a bottom-tier roster and inheriting one of the toughest schedules on the planet. It is why Seth Walder of ESPN analytics had the Patriots ranked dead last.
Before you lose your tea-throwing minds, I don't agree with Walder over this. I think there are at least a few teams who could be worse than the Patriots. Since New England has Drake Maye and a competent stop-gap in Jacoby Brissett keeping the seat warm for him, I venture to guess that the Patriots will be better than teams like the Carolina Panthers, New York Giants or Tennessee Titans.
However, I can accept the data that Walder gathered and his rationale in having the Patriots coming in 32nd place in the NFL next season. This is probably a bottom-eighth team in the league, and absolutely one that will finish in the bottom quarter. I think there is too much upside for the Patriots to have the No. 1 pick. More importantly, they are going to trade back if they end up getting it anyway.
Let's discuss what success should look like for the Patriots in a transitional year for the franchise.
New England Patriots picked to finish in dead last by ESPN analytics
Admittedly, last year's team was bad and it is not going to be much better for the Patriots this year. They had the No. 3 overall pick, but I remain skeptical that they will be picking that high again next spring. It is the unique combination of slightly overachieving, as well as not needing a quarterback at No. 1 if they were to crap the bed again next season. What I would do is try to draft a star on defenseOverall, success for the Patriots is going to look vastly different than it did not even five years ago. Success starts and ends with these two things: Maye looking like a franchise quarterback at times during his rookie year out of UNC, as well as Mayo looking like a leader of men as the perfect players coach this franchise needs. If both men show us that, we might have something worthy building on
Ultimately, this is why you play the games. Analytics give us a glimpse into what could happen, not what will happen. You can try to boil everything and every player down to a number, but some dudes and concepts are just not quantifiable, man. The Patriots may have the hardest schedule next season on paper, but very rarely does it prove to be the case. Someone will be better and some will be worse.
For now, we can only hope that Mayo and the rest of the Patriots use these rankings as motivation.
