Hello, ESPN — take a number and join the Detroit Lions championship prediction party.
Just weeks after Sports Illustrated boldly forecasted a Super Bowl win for Detroit, ESPN has now added its voice to the conversation. According to an ESPN simulation, the Lions will defeat the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl 59, capturing their first-ever Lombardi Trophy.
Using their Football Power Index (FPI), ESPN ran 20,000 simulations of the upcoming NFL season. In one of those projections, the Lions emerged victorious, further solidifying their status as serious contenders.
The simulation shows the Lions continuing their upward trajectory for a fourth straight season under coach Dan Campbell. With a 13-4 record, they would clinch their second consecutive NFC North title and secure that coveted first-round bye in the playoffs.
In the divisional round, the Lions would face off against their division rivals, the seventh-seeded Chicago Bears, defeating them 27-16. This sets up an NFC Championship rematch with the San Francisco 49ers — this time on their home turf at Ford Field, where the Lions finally come out on top.
And for those curious, in this scenario, the fifth-seeded Green Bay Packers didn’t quite make it, falling to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the Wild-card round.
Key factors driving the Lions’ success in the simulation include an offense that remains largely intact from last season, led by Jared Goff, and a defense bolstered by the addition of Carlton Davis III in the secondary. Aidan Hutchinson’s breakout year also plays a key role, fueling the growing optimism around Detroit’s chances.
“The combination led the Lions to 13 wins and the top seed in the NFC. Detroit took care of upstart Chicago in the divisional round before settling the score in the NFC title game with San Francisco to advance to New Orleans and Super Bowl LIX,” ESPN analytics writer Seth Walder wrote.
In this simulation, Super Bowl LIX wasn’t without its drama. Patrick Mahomes was firing on all cylinders, pushing the Chiefs to a 28-14 lead over the Lions midway through the fourth quarter, seemingly on the verge of securing a third straight title.
But Jahmyr Gibbs and Kalif Raymond had other plans.
“After the second of Gibbs’ touchdowns cut Kansas City’s lead to eight points, Campbell went for two and converted, cutting the deficit to six,” Walder wrote. “That set up the game’s unlikely hero; wide receiver Kalif Raymond scored on an 8-yard touchdown pass from Goff with three minutes left to play, giving the Lions a 29-28 lead.
“For once, the storybook finish didn’t materialize for Mahomes. After a quick first down, the Chiefs found themselves with a fourth-and-10 on their own 39-yard line. Mahomes fired a pass to receiver Rashee Rice, but Detroit safety Brian Branch swatted it away, allowing the Lions to kneel out the clock for a 29-28 victory and giving the franchise its first NFL title since 1957.”
Dan Campbell is already working to keep his players grounded, focusing on what’s immediately ahead of them—the season opener and a Wild Card round rematch with the Los Angeles Rams. But with projections from Sports Illustrated and now ESPN, it might be a challenge for Campbell to contain the sky-high expectations of a hungry fanbase.
