Clearly, MoneyPuck does not believe in the power of friendship.
Monday, the popular analytics website published its predictions for the rest of the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs. Despite finishing with the Eastern Conference’s best record and taking care of the Montreal Canadiens in five games during their first-round series, the Washington Capitals’ are underdogs in the second round and beyond.
MoneyPuck gives the Capitals only a 44.8 percent chance of beating the Carolina Hurricanes in the seven-game series. Not only that, the Capitals have the worst odds of making it to the Stanley Cup Final (17.5 percent) and lifting the Cup (7.5 percent) among all other teams still playing.
Among the final four in the Eastern Conference, the Florida Panthers have the best odds (29.2 percent) of making the Stanley Cup Final, with the Hurricanes (27 percent) and Toronto Maple Leafs (26.4 percent) trailing behind them.
The Vegas Golden Knights have the best odds of becoming Western Conference champions at 28.2 percent.
“There’s no empirical measurement for agape love,” RMNB crasher Timbo Slice correctly pointed out.
While MoneyPuck’s circular bracket probability chart is dour about the Caps chances, their model is actually the kindest among the major stat sites. Hockeyviz.com puts the Capitals’ chances at advancing past the second round at 42 percent, The Athletic at 33 percent, and Evolving Hockey at 24 percent.
Pessimism about Washington’s chances has been around for years. The Caps have consistently shown better results on the scoreboard than their underlying possession statistics would suggest — a sign that, in a large enough sample, indicates exceptional finishing talent that isn’t factored into the models. Meanwhile, the Carolina Hurricanes have long been analytics darlings — especially as former stats-blogger Eric Tulsky ascended their organization, becoming general manager last summer. Powered by a relentless forecheck, the Hurricanes are an oppressive possession team, but they have never once scored goals at a higher rate than expected in the eleven years since Tulsky joined them.
Though the models hate the Caps, the model-makers are more sanguine.
“The good news for Washington? The Model has literally never been right about them. Ever,” The Athletic’s Dom Luszczyszyn wrote in his Round 2 preview. “A 33 percent chance has the Capitals right where fans want them.”
