After a couple of down seasons, the bar is being set high for the Kansas City Chiefs‘ offense. Better health at the receiver spot and better talent at left tackle can largely be credited for that.
Not many are anticipating a true return to form for one particular player, though. Coming off the worst effort of his career in 2024-25, tight end Travis Kelce is attempting to bounce back. Be cautious of buying that stock, per one fantasy football analyst.
In a July 15 story for Pro Football Focus, Jonathon Macri listed four players to avoid at their current average draft position. Kelce was one of two Chiefs to make the cut, joining wideout Xavier Worthy.
Fantasy Analyst Believes Chiefs’ Star TE Is Showing His Age
A couple of factors contributed to the inclusion of Kelce. Both were dubbed “more concerning” reasons to be hesitant or “fade” him.
According to Macri, the days of Kelce carrying your fantasy lineup are over.
“Kelce suffered a clear drop-off in his metrics last season, which, like with [Tyreek] Hill, isn’t unexpected for a player who will turn 36 years old this season,” Macri wrote. “Kelce finished 2024 with a career-low 71.7 PFF grade in addition to more career lows in receiving grade (72.2), yards per route run (1.49) and yards per reception (9.1). He also came in with fewer than 1,000 receiving yards for the first time since his rookie season, which includes the playoffs, where he played an additional three games last year.”
It’s hard to disagree with Macri’s reasoning. Despite hauling in four more passes in 2024 than 2023, Kelce’s efficiency fell again. A lot of that is attributed to athletic decline. The eye test reflected a player who was in his 12th season. The data backed it up, too, as Kelce’s yards after catch per reception fell all the way down to 3.5. It was 6.1 in 2021, 5.9 in 2022 and 5.0 in 2023.
Improved health and better weapons around him (more on that in a moment) could help Kelce. At this point, it’s about staying fresh. The Chiefs leaned on him more last season, playing him 84% of offensive snaps. In the three seasons prior, that figure declined. Look to see a return to that trend in 2025.
Return of Rashee Rice Expected to Limit Kelce’s Fantasy Production
Back to the possibility of better surrounding talent. Last season, the Chiefs and their superstar tight end got dealt a poor hand. In the preseason, Marquise “Hollywood” Brown went down with a sternoclavicular injury. Early in the regular season, Rashee Rice suffered a season-ending knee ailment. In turn, Kelce went from a secondary piece to the main event on offense. That’s unsustainable for someone his age.
In a vacuum, Brown being better acclimated and Rice returning is a good thing. It should raise the floor and ceiling of the Kansas City offense. It’ll also allow Kelce to play fewer snaps and receive less attention when he is on the field. On the other hand, it could mean lesser production from a fantasy perspective.
The dynamic between Rice and Kelce is the second worry for Macri.
“Rice’s return to Kansas City’s lineup is a crucial one as Kelce no longer operates as the team’s top down-by-down target with Rice active, as highlighted in the chart below covering nearly all of 2023, including the playoffs, and three full games with Rice last season,” Macri wrote. “Considering Kelce’s decline in play and Rice’s return, there’s even more reason to fade Kelce as a potential top-six player at his position. Even as Jonnu Smith falls out of that range with his trade to Pittsburgh, there are still better or more valuable options to consider over the future Hall of Famer in 2025 drafts.”
Whether you’re a fan, fantasy guru or league employee, it’s easy to see that Kelce isn’t the same player he once was. His fall from grace is entirely reasonable, though, and 2025 should see him look rejuvenated. How much value does that offer?
Perhaps not enough to justify such a high draft pick.
